China Property Sector: A stable path ahead in 2020

Decent upside expected from China’s property sector on the back of widely anticipated easing policy and good annual results from developers in 2019.
Group Research20 Jan 2020
  • Stability in overall market performance is expected in 2020
  • Most developers have met or exceeded presales targets
  • Small and mid caps to take the lead in 2020
Photo credit: Hanny Naibaho on Unsplash

December ASP saw slight decline from November level with historical high monthly GFA sold. Accordingly, 2019 full year residential sales growth concluded at 10.3% with 1.5% and 8.7% growth in GFA sold and residential ASP respectively. On the supply side full year GFA sold was 10% lower than GFA new start. We expect a stable 2020 ahead with slight decline in GFA sold and slight increase in ASP.

In Dec, the presales figure of 26 listed developers we track was up 19% y-o-y on a weighted average basis. This translates into a full-year presales growth of 22% that exceeds the original averaged targeted growth of 17%. These developers gained 3ppts of market share in 2019 as expected.

Most developers aside either met or exceeded their 2019 presales targets. Looking forward, as small- and mid-caps were more active in the land market in 2019, we believe they will likely record outperforming presales growth this year and take the lead in the ongoing market share consolidation.

To read the full report, click here to Download the PDF.

Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication.

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and PT Bank DBS Indonesia (collectively, the “DBS Group”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Group does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation & the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only & is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Group, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Group or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Group & its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, & may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein & may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking & other banking or finan­cial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Sources for all charts & tables are CEIC & Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Blvd, Marina Bay Financial Center Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong.

PT Bank DBS Indonesia, DBS Bank Tower, 33rd floor, Ciputra World 1, Jalan Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav 3-5, Jakarta, 12940, Indonesia. Tel: 62-21-2988-4000. Company Registration No.