Nextera Energy Inc
The latest investment analysis on Nextera Energy Inc
Group Research - Equities15 Apr 2024
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Company Overview
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) is the largest utility and renewable energy company in America. NEE has two business segments: 1) Utility business via Florida Power & Light Company (FPL), America’s largest rate-regulated electric utility that provides clean electricity to more than 12m people across Florida, with c.28,450 megawatts (MW) of net generating capacity; and 2) Energy Resources business, primarily renewables, via NextEra Energy Resources, LLC (NEER), world’s largest generator of renewable energy from wind and solar and a world leader in battery storage. FPL and Energy Resources contributed 65% and 35% to FY22 adjusted EPS respectively.


Investment Overview
One of the largest regulated utility business with renewable energy exposure, backed by strong track record. NEE has a unique proposition and wide economic moat as one of the largest utility and renewable companies in the America. Its regulated utility business is seeing slow but steady growth as Florida continues to see in-migration and thus rising utility demand. Meanwhile, its renewable business offers plenty of growth ahead, with renewable capacity expected to double by 2025 and NEE expected to invest US$20bn in green hydrogen energy. While the growth target might appear ambitious for such a large utility company amidst slowing economic activity, NEE has demonstrated excellent track record to weather through cycles, delivering 10% adjusted EPS CAGR the past 10 years (way above top 10 US power companies' 3% CAGR). NEE also has best-in-class operation and maintenance (O&M), achieving continuous cost savings through technology innovation and digitalisation that allows NEE to offer low-cost clean energy. Balance sheet remains relatively healthy at 1.5x net debt to equity and 4.2x net debt to EBITDA considering its rapid organic and inorganic growth.

FY23 in-line with consensus, slightly above management's guidance. NEE reported FY23 adjusted EPS of US$3.17 (+9.3% yoy), in-line with consensus estimates of US$3.14, and slightly exceeding management's FY23 EPS guidance range of US$2.98-3.13. Both Florida Power & Light (FPL) and renewable energy (NEER) segments saw firm performance, with FPL delivering among the highest ROEs (FY23 at 11.8%) among US utilities and NEER delivering robust new investments.
Outlook reaffirmed with targeted 6-8% adjusted EPS CAGR growth. Management continues to expect to deliver results at the top end of its adjusted EPS guided ranges in 2024 - 2026, and a c.10% annual DPS growth up until 2024. FY23 was a record origination year for NEE with 9.0GW of new renewables and storage added to its backlog, bringing total backlog at more than 20GW (a record high, which forms 75% of NEER’s FY22A capacity). Risk of equity financing also remains minimal for now with NEE expected to mostly tap onto its operating cashflows, debt financing and tax equity/project finance. Other catalysts include (i) co-locate battery storage project opportunities, (ii) addition of US$1.9bn in capital towards transmission projects by 2027 and more. Potential rate cuts in 2H24F is also a key catalyst to watch, with NEE's US$18.5bn interest rate swaps well positioned to ride on this tailwind. 

Maintain BUY with higher TP of US$75 (previous US$70). NEE is currently trading at a Forward EV/EBITDA of 13.7x, at -1.5SD of its historical average, which suggests an attractive entry point for investors. Our TP is based on EV/EBITDA of 15.7x, -0.4SD below mean. We continue to favour NEE with its crown jewel utility business and robust renewable energy outlook and we near term pullback as a good buying opportunity into a defensive play with solid growth.


Risks
Rising interest rate could pose challenges on its expansion plans and lower its returns. NEE has measures in place and secured financing arrangements for its project pipeline. Supply chain disruptions are expected to cause 6-month delay for 2022-2023 solar and storage projects and potential cancellation for c.2GW of contract projects. It has thus far been able to navigate the industry headwinds well without material disruptions. Utilities business in Floria is sensitive to regulatory changes.

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