Market View Update
Iran conflict: Winners, casualties and the signals to watch
Global equity markets’ reaction towards past conflicts
% terms | Max drawdown within 60D | 1 year return post conflict | ||||||
Conflict | Start of conflict | # days of elevated VIX | All-country | S&P | Asia ex Japan | All-country | S&P | Asia ex Japan |
Gulf War | 2-Aug-90 | 148 | -19.1 | -15.3 | -28.6 | -2.8 | 8.9 | -6.6 |
Iraq War | 20-Mar-03 | n.m. | -4.7 | -5.3 | -6.8 | 37.2 | 27.0 | 61.7 |
Arab Spring | 17-Dec-10 | 33 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -7.4 | -10.3 | -1.9 | -17.6 |
Syrian Civil War | 15-Mar-11 | 4 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -3.4 | -0.3 | 7.6 | -3.0 |
Yemen Civil War | 16-Sep-14 | 37 | -8.6 | -7.4 | -6.8 | -7.4 | -0.3 | -16.9 |
Russia-Ukraine War | 24-Feb-22 | 13 | -7.1 | -7.8 | -14.9 | -7.4 | -5.0 | -16.4 |
Israel-Hamas War | 7-Oct-23 | 17 | -5.6 | -5.9 | -6.1 | 29.6 | 33.5 | 29.0 |
Iran-Israel War | 13-Jun-25* | 8 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -2.1 | 17.5 | 13.8 | 33.2 |
US-Ven Invasion | 3-Jan-26* | 5 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 12.2 |
Average | - | 33 | -5.8 | -5.3 | -8.6 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 8.4 |
Source: DBS, Bloomberg *Performance from conflict date of 27-Feb-26 #Number of trading days required for VIX Index to revert/normalise to pre-conflict reading
- Markets will take its cue from how the Iranian conflict unfolds over the next 4 weeks, whether it 1) stays a contained operation with limited retaliation or 2) escalates into a prolonged conflict
- Past conflict-led drawdowns on global equity markets tend to be short-lived and average 6-7% within 60 days of conflict
- Re-emergence of inflation that complicates Fed’s rate cut cycle is a bigger risk to equity markets, especially with a prolonged conflict involving the Strait of Hormuz blockade
- The situation remains fluid, here are our thoughts on how markets and sectors could react in the near-term
- Scope for the STI to test 4,735-4,800 (5-6% pullback from recent high) in coming week(s), with near-term resistance c.5,000; which is in-line with our Singapore market outlook published in early February – We will review our current STI YE target of 5,000 in due course
Singapore Equity Picks
AEM Holdings: Remove from Growth at SGD2.90
The stock is trading at <3% from consensus 12-mth target of SGD2.98. This follows a stunning +42.8% share price surge in the past 2 trading sessions as consensus scrambled to revise their earnings forecast and TP on the back of the latest stronger-than-expected results and outlook. Upside looks limited in the near-term with technical resistances seen at SGD3.01 (138.2% Fibonacci projection), SGD3.14 (150% Fibonacci projection) and SGD3.26 (161.8% Fibonacci projection). A pullback to consolidate recent gains would be healthy. Stock is trading at 22X FY26F PE and 11X FY26F PEG. Our fundamental TP is SGD3.30.
ComfortDelgro: Remove from Dividend at SGD1.55
We remove the stock with our analyst’s downgrade to Hold rating, citing the loss of Tampines bus package and its Singapore taxi business that remains in a sustained structural decline. An 80% payout ratio and a % stable dividend yield at current level may limit downside risk though, to around the SGD1.45 level though. Shares removed returned c.12% (including dividend paid).
City Developments: Remove from Blue Chips at SGD9.82
City Development shares is a candidate for short-term profit taking as the latest Middle East conflict raises the risk that the Fed may pause its rate cut cycle. The stock’s recent high of SGD10.09 coincides closely with a key 100% Fibonacci objective at SGD10.17. A 10% pullback from current level to SGD8.80 looks possible. City Development shares returned 77% (including dividend paid) since inclusion back in mid-July.
Hong Kong Equity Picks
Add PetroChina (857 HK) by removing BYDE (285 HK)
- We added PetroChina to our top picks to capture potential stronger oil prices amid US-Iran conflict
- We are removing BYDE to fund the trade, although we believe the 2026 catalysts — including Apple’s foldable phone launch — remain intact Stocks to Watch
Trending Sector
Regional Oil & Gas
Oil prices will spike as US Iran conflict intensifies
- US and Israeli forces launch a major coordinated strike targeting Iranian leadership and military infrastructure
- Iran’s asymmetric response potential remains high, leading to elevated oil price environment in near term
- Key swing factor is whether the conflict spills into shipping lanes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz
- While Brent could spike into the USD80–85/bbl range on immediate risk premium, sustained upside would require either physical supply loss or prolonged shipping disruption
Singapore Construction
- Multi-year super-cycle underpinned by mega infrastructure projects, steady housing developments and industrial facilities
- Order book visibility at multi-year highs and more to come; with upside for selected players
- Steady margin expansion amid rising construction costs for selected players in the industry
- BUY growth at reasonable price - Prefer HLA, CA-REIT, Soilbuild, Wee Hur with more in the pipeline
Stocks to Watch
CityDev – TP (+)
Powering up the recycling engine
- FY25 PATMI grew >2x y/y to SGD 630mn, c.22% above our estimates, driven by Singapore development recognition and sizeable divestment gains
- Catalysts to watch: i) Continued asset recycling (incl some assets earmarked in UK and China) to unlock value and bring down gearing, ii) Singapore residential sales and landbanking, iii) Update on “strategic review”
- Large-cap developer trading at a c.50% discount to RNAV and valuations remain compelling despite strong rally over past year
- Maintain BUY with revised TP of SGD 12.00 (prev SGD 11.80), based on 35% discount to RNAV
UOL – Earnings (+)
The pieces are falling into place
- Convincing beat with FY25 operating PATMI of SGD 469mn (+49% y/y) and special dividend of 7Scts/share on top of final dividend of 18Scts/share
- Room to raise dividends over time, given record SGD 5bn residential sales achieved in 2025 (which will be progressively recognised) alongside a robust new launch pipeline, and growing recurring income
- UOL is taking incremental but deliberate steps in value unlocking and rewarding shareholders; watch for Marina Square redevelopment update in 1H26
- Maintain BUY and TP of SGD 13.00, based on 25% discount to RNAV
SATS – TP (+)
Cargo strength drives earnings beat in 3QFY26 with firm momentum into FY27F
- 3QFY26 PATMI of SGD84.7mn (+20.4% y/y) beat consensus, with 9MFY26 at 81% of our FY estimate and 85% of consensus, tracking in line with our numbers and ahead of the street
- Outperformance led by robust cargo revenue (+12.2% y/y), with record volumes (+7.3%) outperforming the sector for the ninth straight quarter and cargo yield up 4.6%
- Group operating margin strengthened 80bps y/y to 9.2%; sequential dip in margins reflects normalisation from an unusually lean 2Q cost base
- Forward earnings estimates largely in-tact; lift TP to SGD4.50 as we roll forward our valuation peg
Seatrium – TP (+)
Post-merger growth gaining momentum
- A solid set of FY25 results boost post-merger recovery confidence; core margins improve significantly towards 10%
- Both US legacy projects delivered alongside the Amfels yard disposal, onerous provisions to decline sharply in 2026
- Robust SGD32bn pipeline conversion key for sustained revenue beyond 1–2 years; Noncore divestments deliver SGD50m+ annual savings in FY26 and incremental SGD50mn+ by FY28
- Reiterate BUY; TP adjusted slightly to SGD3 (1.35x FY26 P/Bv)
ST Engineering – TP (+)
Lift-off in aerospace, lock-on in defence
- FY25 core net profit of SGD 851mn in-line with DBS/consensus’ projections; better-than-expected CA margins and solid DPS topline growth offset drag from wider satcom losses
- Order backlog rose to SGD 33.2bn vs SGD28.5bn in 4Q24, with international defence wins doubling y/y; full-year dividend per share of 23Scts largely in-line
- 2026 outlook remains constructive on MRO tailwinds from lingering supply chain constraints, with no impact from GTF engine shortages given STE’s focus on LEAP platforms, alongside sustained defence momentum
- FY26/27F earnings estimates largely in-tact; maintain BUY with higher TP of SGD11.0 as we update our DCF assumptions
Food Empire – Earnings (-), TP (+)
Reinvesting coffee cost savings to stay ahead
- Strong growth outlook across all key segments, partially offset by softness in Europe and Malaysia
- While company will likely see gross margin expansion from lower cocoa prices, we took a conservative stance by assuming that majority could be reinvested into marketing investments to drive future growth
- Trim FY26F/27F earnings by 6% on lower revenue base, higher marketing expense as % of sales and higher net interest costs
- Maintain BUY with higher TP of SGD3.65 based on average of bear and bull case scenario pegged to FY27F earnings estimates
Nam Cheong
4Q25 Core Profit Above; Operational Improvement on Track
- 4Q25 core net profit of RM51mn beats estimate, lifting FY25 core profit to RM188mn (+5% above) on higher utilisation of 69% vs 65% guidance for 4Q25
- Gross margins (ex-restoration cost for vessels sales) at 48-49%; ~2ppt below expectations due to higher repair/maintenance costs during the quarter with normalisation to ~50% level expected in 1Q26
- Optimistic on redeployment of idling ATHS/workboats in 1H26, and more newbuild orders ahead
- Net gearing dwindled to 0.27x, potentially turning net cash towards end of the year; Reiterate BUY; Earnings and TP SGD1.60 under review
Frencken
FY25 slightly above expectations; demand recovery supports positive FY26 outlook
- Slight beat on both FY25 revenue and earnings; margins remained resilient despite mixed end-market demand
- Revenue rose 8.9% y/y, driven by semiconductor recovery and resilient medical/automation demand, while analytical life sciences and automotive softened
- Guidance points to stable-to-improving earnings momentum; expecting flat 1H26 revenue but higher net profit y/y
- We currently have a BUY call, with SGD1.92 TP under review. More updates after briefing on Monday
UMS Integration
FY25 revenue inline, net profit slightly below, dragged by non-core items
- FY25 revenue in line; net profit 4% below on forex and inventory write-offs, core earnings in line
- Semiconductor component sales weaker in 4Q25, likely due to timing and execution factors rather than underlying demand weakness
- FY25 gross material margin improved to 54% from 51% in FY24 on better product mix and operational discipline
- Outlook remains positive. We currently have a BUY call with SGD1.48 TP. More updates after briefing on Monday
UltraGreen.ai
FY25: Structural growth story unchanged
- Volume and ASP growth continued to drive core earnings to USD63.8mn (+14% y/y) on revenue of USD142.4mn (+24% y/y), broadly in line with expectations
- FY26 revenue is guided at USD170-190mn (+26% y/y at the midpoint; in line with our forecast of USD178mn) reflecting continued underlying growth momentum
- Structural growth story remains unchanged though investment in growth initiatives may temper margins
- Maintain BUY with TP USD2.00
Jardine Cycle & Carriage
FY25/2H25 Earnings in-line; Strategic review key rerating catalyst
- FY25 and 2H25 earnings came in line with DBS/consensus, supported by firm Vietnam and Singapore performance
- Astra FY25 earnings were in line with our estimates, but JC&C’s Astra contribution declined 8% y/y on a weaker Indonesian Rupiah; Vietnam and C&C regional interests remained bright spots
- 2H25 DPS of US$0.85 declared, as expected, implying ~4% FY25 dividend yield; strategic review update by 1H26 remains key focus
- We last have a BUY call with TP of SGD38.50; More updates post analyst briefing on 2 Mar (Monday)
IHH Healthcare
FY25 results first look: Core operations remain firm
- FY25 PATMI (ex EI) totalled MYR1.8bn (+8% y/y) on revenue of MYR25.7bn (+6% y/y), led by strength in its core business
- Results were broadly in line with our expectations with Malaysia and Turkiye & Europe leading growth
- Outlook continues to be robust though we continue to watch for payor pressure, rising costs, and fx impact
- We currently have a BUY call with TP SGD2.88/MYR9.20. TP under review, more updates to follow after analyst briefing
PropNex – Recommendation (-), TP (-), Earnings (-)
- A record year in FY25 with strong dividend payout; a more modest growth profile could mean that share price gains could be more measured
- A smaller launch pipeline to be reflected in FY26 results implies y/y performance could be weaker, albeit off a high base; however diversified earnings base coupled with commanding market and agent share could mean more resilience
- Earnings cut by 21%-22% to reflect lower home sales assumptions; management focus on paying steady dividends (est. 4% yield) based on c.80% payout ratio
- Downgrade to HOLD, TP adjusted to SGD 1.95/share
ComfortDelGro – Recommendation (-), TP (-), Earnings (-)
Facing structural domestic challenges
- Downgrade to HOLD and TP of SGD1.60 (versus SGD1.80) pegged to 5.3x fwd EV/EBITDA on lowered FY27F EBITDA
- FY25 earnings at SGD230mn (+9% y/y) in line with estimates largely attributable to one-off SGD19mn disposal gain from Victoria bus depots
- Trim FY26F/27F earnings by 11%/9% to adjust for one-off disposal gains in FY25 and ongoing headwinds in the Singapore operations
- Expect modest 7% earnings growth in FY26F driven by UK public transport, AUD/SGD FX tailwinds and lower finance cost
Daiwa House Logistics Trust – Recommendation (-), TP (-), Earnings (-)
Rental growth has helped to partially offset macro headwinds
- Strong positive rental reversions of +11% in FY25; supported by the sustained inflation in Japan
- FY25 DPU of 4.33 Scts was lower y/y due mainly to higher financing costs and weaker JPY against the SGD
- Further dip in occupancy rate of DPL Sendai Port; backfilling will take time given the size of the asset
- Downgrade to HOLD with lower TP to SGD0.57
Sheng Siong
Solid boost from new stores and SG60 vouchers
- 4Q25 revenue of SGD390mn (+11% y/y) and net profit of SGD33mn (+17% y/y) in line
- FY25 revenue growth of +9% driven mainly by new store openings, contributing +8% y/y while same store sales grew 1% y/y
- Announced closure of Elias Mall store by Apr 26 and Thomson Imperial Court by Jun 26, which contributed SGD44mn to FY25 sales but is continuing to grow its footprint in private malls and with bids for four sites in HDB estates
- Declared final dividend of 3.8Scts; Maintain HOLD with TP under review
Legend
| (+) | (-) |
Earnings | Positive earnings revision | Negative earnings revision |
Recommendation | Upgrade | Downgrade |
TP | Increase | Decrease |
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