USD Rates: Oil / Yield correlation moderating
Oil is a double-edged sword.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow31 Mar 2026
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The correlation between US Treasury yields and oil prices is finally moderating. Since end-February, WTI prices have risen by around USD 35 / bbl to USD 104 / bbl. Over the same period, 2Y yields have risen by 56bps to 3.79%. Each USD 10 / bbl increase in oil prices brings about a 16bps increase in 2Y yields. Notably, a linear extrapolation would mean that 2Y US yields would climb by another 74bps if oil prices push towards USD 150 / bbl. However, this would probably overstate the impact of oil on yields. it would not make sense to extrapolate the same sensitivities as oil prices creep even higher. There would be diminishing oil / yield correlation as oil prices rise and the correlation may flip negative past a certain level of oil prices. 

While rising oil prices mean greater inflation risk, there should also be a dampening impact on consumption. Downside risks to the economy would then outweigh higher inflation risks. Under such a scenario, investors may the prefer to hedge against recessionary risks, bringing yields lower. The calculus has probably changed given the extent of yield adjustments over the past month (the market is pricing in a Fed hold this year compared to 2.5 cuts just over a month ago). The rally in US Treasuries over the past two trading days (boosted in part by Fed Chair Powell’s assurances that long-term inflation outlook remains in check) suggests that investors are rethinking the oil / yield relationship.  

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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