The DXY Index depreciated by 0.2% to 99.4, its weakest level since October 29. The end of the US government shutdown is in sight. The Senate bill to fund the government until January 30, 2026, has been referred to the House of Representatives for a vote, which is expected to take place as early as today, before being sent to President Donald Trump for signing. Markets remain uneasy about the return of US data releases once the shutdown ends, fearing that the US economy has lost momentum. The ADP report has set a cautious tone showing private sector employers shedding an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks in October. The futures market maintained a two-thirds chance of the Fed lowering rates at the FOMC meeting. If the DXY stays and extends its decline below 99.5, it has scope to return more of the past month’s gain from 97.5 to 100.4. 
With the US Supreme Court likely to rule against Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose unilateral tariffs, the administration has turned to diplomacy to recast his trade strategy as constructive engagement rather than confrontation. Trump sounded more optimistic about trade deals with Switzerland and India, both of which are heavily affected by his reciprocal tariffs. 
For example, a potential agreement with Switzerland in the coming fortnight could lower US tariffs from 39% to 15% and help ease pressure on luxury and watch exports. USD/CHF declined 0.6% to 0.8005 while EUR/CHF fell 0.4% to 0.9270. Markets remain alert to levels around 0.9250 in EUR/CHF, where the Swiss National Bank has been known to discourage excessive currency strength after Liberation Day and maintain financial conditions consistent with its goals of price stability and export competitiveness. 
In the case of India, Trump’s optimism for a trade deal stems from signs that New Delhi was gradually curbing its reliance on discounted Russian oil. Against this backdrop, Trump has expressed a desire to mend strained relations by negotiating a trade deal that lowers the US’s steep 50% tariff on Indian goods. Following India’s landmark trade pact with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which signalled New Delhi’s willingness to deepen ties with countries outside the US-China axis, Trump cannot risk pushing India further toward Europe or a BRICS partner. USD/INR declined by 0.15% to 88.57, with scope to test the lower end of its two-month 87.7-88.8 range amid prospects for US lower tariffs and steady Reserve Bank of India intervention to cap the pair at the 88.8 level.
Quote of the Day
“We cannot change our past. We cannot change the fact that people act in a certain way. We cannot change the inevitable. The only thing we can do is play on the one string we have, and that is our attitude.”
Charles R. Swindoll
November 12 in history
In 1989, Brazil held its first free presidential election in 29 years.
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