Attention will shift to the resumption of US data releases. The US nonfarm payrolls data on November 20 will be significant: consensus expects 50k jobs to be added in September, up from 22k in August. Job insecurity is becoming more visible to households alongside cost-of-living concerns. The Trump administration’s messaging has increasingly emphasised inflation and affordability (price relief and tariff moderation) over direct labour market support. At the end of the US earnings season, guidance from two major corporations will be closely watched – one to provide a gauge of the consumer spending trends and margin pressure from discounting, and the other as a bellwether for sentiment on the AI trade amid worries over overvaluation.
A key overhang for markets is the wide division within the US Federal Reserve over a December rate cut. Fed Presidents John Williams (New York) and Mary Daly (San Francisco) have argued that weak demand, softer hiring, and tightening credit conditions may justify an “insurance cut.” Despite the end of the government shutdown, other Fed officials warn that available inflation data is still too limited to warrant an easing. A more apparent bias may surface after the Fed ends quantitative easing on December 1.
GBP/USD has recovered to a range of 1.31-1.32 after bottoming at 1.30 on November 5. The UK Autumn Budget, scheduled for November 26, differs from the 2022 mini-budget crisis. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has avoided a Truss-style rupture by signalling fiscal responsibility, such as keeping the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) engaged. Nonetheless, the Budget remains a serious challenge due to the unforgiving math: weak economic growth, high debt servicing costs, and Reeves’ self-imposed fiscal rules leave little scope to deliver public services and support economic growth without tax increases that risk dampening demand. Reeves need to recognise that blaming the past will not restore confidence and that markets like chancellors who act like stewards – predictable, accountable, and strategic in managing constraints. The IMF has already recommended more flexible fiscal rules for a weak-growth and high-interest-rate-cost environment.
USD/JPY’s rise stalled around 155 last week, capped after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that the negative effects of a weak JPY now outweigh its benefits. However, Katayama announced on Sunday that the Takaichi coalition government will submit an economic stimulus package of at least JPY17trn (USD110bn) to cushion living-cost pressures and accelerate investments in sectors such as AI and semiconductors. Funding concerns have pushed JGB yields higher, which in turn have supported USD/JPY. Approval of the package at the Diet on November 21 is not guaranteed. The LDP-Inshin coalition lacks a majority in both chambers, making support from the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) essential. The direction of USD/JPY also hinges on Thursday’s US NFP report, where a softer-than-expected print could reinforce expectations for a December Fed cut and weigh on the USD, while a stronger outcome would have the opposite effect.
USD/CHF declined 1.4% to 0.7940 after the US agreed to reduce tariffs on Swiss goods to 15% from 29%. In exchange, Switzerland pledged to invest USD200bn into the US by 2028, of which USD67bn will be delivered in 2026. SNB officials signalled that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 0% in December, arguing that inflation will rise in the coming quarters while staying within the 0-2% target range. With the SNB ruling out negative rates, markets remain vigilant for FX interventions, especially with EUR/CHF at the year’s lows near 0.92 and USD/CHF below 0.80.
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