Long EUR-USD: A play on the slow-down in pace of the Fed rate hikes
Long EUR-USD as an expression of selling USD on rallies
Treasury & Markets, Terence Wu6 Feb 2023
  • Guidance from the Fed and ECB suggests a short window where the ECB is more hawkish than the Fed
  • This should keep the EUR-USD supported on dips; we prefer to fade any EUR weakness against the USD
  • Opportunity to enter long EUR-USD on dips arrived with the blockbuster US Jan non-farm payrolls
  • Enter a long EUR-USD position near the lows of the recent consolidation range
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Short window where the ECB to be more hawkish than the Fed; US NFP surprise provided the catalyst for the USD to bounce.

  • The Fed and the ECB held their respective policy meetings on the week starting 30 Jan.
  • The Fed delivered as expected – with a 25 bps hike and explicit hints in the statement and press conference that two further 25 bps rate hikes in the March and May FOMC decisions will be the baseline. On the other hand, the ECB pencilled in a 50 bps hike, with a consensus for another 50 bps in its March decision. Thus, this opens a short window, up to the March Fed and ECB decisions, where the market expectations for the ECB is more hawkish than the Fed.
  • This setup should be supportive of front-end EZ-US yield differentials and the EUR-USD. Thus, we have the preference to fade any EUR weakness against the USD.
  • The opportunity to sell USD on rallies presented itself after the almost too good to be true US Jan non-farm payrolls release (517k vs consensus 188k). That data surprise provided the catalyst for the USD to bounce against the majors, EUR included



Long EUR-USD as an expression of selling USD on rallies.

  • The EUR-USD retreated from a recent high of 1.1033, but is finding some support towards the 1.0770 – 1.0820 zone (1), which is near the recent 18 Jan lows and the bottom of the uptrend channel starting from Nov 2022 (2). A further support is at the 50-DMA near 1.0687 (3).
  • We also note that the EUR-USD’s 50-, 100- and 200-daily moving averages (DMA) are forming golden cross technical patterns (4a) (4b) (4c), suggesting a persistent, positive technical momentum in the daily chart. Similarly, the MACD on the daily chart (5) continues to show strong positive momentum.
  • Thus, despite the sharp dip over the last two sessions, the underlying positive momentum for the EUR-USD remains intact. In general, we do not see the EUR-USD in a clear downtrend until it fall below the base of the uptrend channel and the 50-DMA.


With the fundamental and technical angles still supportive of EUR-USD upside, we have entered long EUR-USD position at 1.0795.

  • Target price: 1.1100, with an interim target at the 1.1000 – 1.1030 recent range highs.
  • Stop-loss: 1.0625, around the 04 – 05 Feb consolidation zone and the top of the 06 Feb break-up level. Interim review around 1.0725. near the base of the 10 – 11 Feb consolidation zone.


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