China Equities: Time to Start Dollar-Cost Averaging
With the relaxation of China's Covid-zero policy and issuance of calibrated measures for partial reopening,we stay constructive on China equities
Chief Investment Office, Yeang Cheng Ling8 Dec 2022
  • China eases Covid-zero policies; economic recovery and upward rerating of equity valuations expected
  • Additional supportive measures addressing economic concerns and revival of mobility are ongoing
  • With valuations at multi-year lows and rerating in motion, investors should dollar-cost average down
  • We are constructive on domestic oriented sectors such as A-shares, financials, and more
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Dynamic Covid-zero policy pivot – measures for partial reopening. The Chinese government has relaxed its Covid-zero policy and issued 10 calibrated measures for partial reopening, one of which includes home quarantine for non-serious cases. We believe this key policy pivot will lead to economic recovery and an upward rerating of equity valuations. China equities had dropped more than 60% between the mid-February 2021 peak and the recent end-October low. Even after the current rebound, it is still some 50% away from the peak. Given these conditions, it seems opportune to dollar-cost average down.

Further supportive policies materialising. As mentioned in our CIO Perspectives report dated 25 October, until new policies are announced and implemented with further clarity, investment communities will remain watchful over macro policy directions, such as strict Covid policies, frameworks on new economy sectors, and plans to address existing debt issues among real estate developers. While China’s government has issued additional supportive measures since our report was published, what’s notable here is the pivot away from Covid-zero policies. We expect further positive measures to be announced in future with the Politburo’s commitment to supporting economic activity.

Rerating to continue. We believe there is compelling upside potential for China equities to rerate from current levels, driven by the ongoing introduction of government measures to alleviate key concerns regarding Covid-zero policies, real estate sector problems, and economic goals, as mentioned in our previous report. These positive catalysts are now falling into place as we had predicted. The market has lauded such moves as evidenced by recent share price rebounds.

Valuations at multi-year lows. China equities are trading at 11x forward PER and 1.1x price-to-book. The subdued valuations – both absolute and relative to global equities, and significant underweight allocations among investment funds – will continue to act as a supporting factor to initiate a longstanding rerating after the sentiment was suppressed over the past quarters.

Time to dollar-cost average down. We reiterate our stance to stay constructive on China equities and the timing has materialised to dollar-cost average down. Investment opportunities are emerging as China re-opens; we stay constructive on domestic oriented sectors which are at the forefront of the re-opening ripple. These include A-shares, new economy and e-commerce platforms, China consumer brands, beneficiaries of government fixed asset expenditures, and high dividend yielding financials.

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