Layering up on EUR shorts
Renewed Eurozone data weakness weighs on the EUR
Treasury & Markets, Terence Wu1 Dec 2023
  • Broad USD has capitulated further since our previous publication
  • However, EUR-USD has remained capped below the key 1.0960 – 1.1000 zone
  • Recent data shows macro weakness in the Eurozone, and could be a catalyst for EUR weakness
  • We note that the technical picture for the EUR has worsened on several crosses
  • Adding to our short EUR-USD & EUR-JPY ideas, there is scope to explore EUR shorts against CHF & GBP
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The broad USD is capitulating lower; EUR-USD still limited by the 1.1000 resistance we mentioned last week…

  • Since the previous FX Tactical Ideas on 23 Nov, the broad USD has weakened further. The DXY Index has detached lower from its holding zone around the 200-DMA (103.60) earlier in the week and is now expected to proceed on its path of least resistance lower. The next waypoint for a consolidation will be towards 102.00 – 102.50 range (early Aug floor and the 61.8% Fibo level of the Jul – Oct move).
  • This extended USD move has pushed many USD-G10 pairs beyond their initial major support and resistance levels. For example: the GBP-USD and AUD-USD are both clear above 1.2468 and 0.6581, their respective 200-DMA levels. The technical environment is now decidedly USD-negative for these USD-G10 pairs.
  • The most important pair (for the DXY Index at least) though, the EUR-USD, remains capped below the psychological 1.1000.  Note that the latest EUR-USD spike (28/29 Nov) failed to hold above 1.1000. A series of weaker-than-expected data prints out of Germany and France on 29 and 30 Nov also caused the EUR-USD to slip lower towards 1.0900. This price action gels in well with the call that the 1.0960 – 1.1000 zone should trigger a degree of reassessment. Overall, we prefer to stay negative on the EUR.

… and notice that the technical picture is worsening for the EUR on the EUR-GBP and EUR-CHF crosses.

  • Beyond the EUR-USD and the EUR-JPY covered last week, we are now seeing a deterioration in the technical picture of the EUR-CHF and EUR-GBP. EUR weakness appears to be gathering momentum on the non-USD EUR-crosses.
  • Let us examine the EUR-CHF first. Note that last two bounces in the pair (in Sep and Nov) has been kept under the 0.9700 mark (a). It is also where the downward sloping 200-DMA is located now. Thus, we see 0.9700 as a firm resistance for the pair. Over the last two sessions, the EUR-CHF has also broken lower from its consolidation zone around 0.9650, falling quickly through the 50- and 100-DMA supports around 0.9600. This suggests a continuation of the lower-highs-lower-lows pattern this year (c1) (c2) – the Nov bounce now seems to be a temporary blip rather than a change in overall trajectory.
  • Momentum-wise, the positive bias looks fully exhausted, and is flipping to a negative bias (d). The pair is also reversing lower and working off its overbought conditions (e). These indicators suggest further downside for the pair. Reverting to the previous downtrend line (c2) will imply a sub-0.9400 target going forward (f). While we previously thought 0.9500 may be a level where the SNB may start to be concerned about CHF strength relative to EUR, it is less pressing at this time as the driver is mainly EUR weakness, rather than CHF strength. 

Chart 1: EUR-CHF daily chart from Jan 2023 

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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