Economics Weekly: Soft Landing Ahead
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Economics Research8 Dec 2023
  • Global: Despite macro challenges, global economy experienced only a modest slowing of growth in 2023
  • China: Soft rebound on the cards for 2024; normalisation on the horizon
  • Singapore: Growth prospects to improve in 2024; expect real GDP growth to rise to 2.2%
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Global: Global economy fared acceptably amid challenging environment. 2023 was supposed to be the year of the global economic slowdown, led by the US. High interest rates, fiscal correction after the largesse of the pandemic years, and lingering lockdown-related friction in China were all on course to sap global economic momentum, with shadows over asset markets. The electronics cycle was undergoing a painful correction and tech stocks were reeling from the 2022 sell-off. Emerging economies and markets appeared highly vulnerable to high commodity prices, a strong USD, rising interest rates, along with a plethora of geopolitical risks.

But despite taking on all those challenges, the global economy fared acceptably this year, slowing modestly. Global growth may be a tad lower this year compared to 2022, but that misses the fact that the largest economy in the world, the US, will end 2023 with a stronger outturn than the previous year (2.4% vs 2.1%, as per our forecast). China and India, the two most populous economies of the world, are also slated to end this year with a higher growth rate than last year, some positive base effect for the China numbers notwithstanding. For emerging markets as a whole, the IMF estimates a broadly unchanged outrun of 4% growth this year compared to 2023.

What drove the better-than-expected outcome? In the case of the US, the answer boils down to cash and liquidity. Despite rising rates and quantitative tightening (QT), US consumers and businesses, with most of their debt tied to rates from the zero-rate era, fared fine. Consumers still had unspent cash from stimulus related transfers and credits, while businesses found ample credit and funding available. For the rest of the world, and to some extent for Americans, steady or declining commodity prices came in as a welcome surprise, supporting purchasing power. Post pandemic spike in travel, tourism, and events continued to act as a tailwind to a wide range of services worldwide.

For 2024, soft landing is our base case. The burden of high rates weighs in on US and EU demand, but a recession is unlikely in either area. A gradual softening of US labour market materialises in moderation of consumption demand. Similarly, in the Euro area, growth flattens in the core economies. Here in Asia, China continues to clean up its property and tech sectors, while keeping growth above 4%. For ASEAN countries, we see a 50 bps pick-up in the annual real GDP growth, driven by a bottoming of the electronics export cycle and continued recovery in travel and tourism.

This scenario is contingent on an orderly financial sector. Liquidity stays ample despite QT, US treasuries remain well bid by the private sector, USD weakens, and commodity markets stabilise.

Figure 1: Global GDP growth (% y/y)


Source: IMF, DBS


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