FX Daily: USD liquidity worries and CNY weakness (
RMB softening persists; JPY guidance
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang1 Jun 2023
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The US House of Representatives will be voting to pass the debt ceiling bill today, with the bill expected to have sufficient support from Republicans and Democrats to pass. Past the debt ceiling, markets are focussing on prospects of a large issuance of Treasury bills later this year, perhaps amounting to USD800bn, as the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance is rebuilt. While there are worries that this could tighten USD liquidity and lift the USD, we think that the risk is not substantial. First, spending should return a portion of the funds to the system, and the rise in the TGA can be calibrated by Treasury. Second, there is over USD2trn of excess liquidity parked with the Fed’s reverse repo facility, which is a large buffer. There may be idiosyncratic risks though, particularly for banks that have lower liquidity compared to their peers.

Fed’s Mester said in an interview that she sees no compelling reason to pause in June, and the only reason to skip when more tightening is clearly necessary would be due to extreme shocks. But she is a non-voter while Jefferson and Harker, both voters, gave a contrary message yesterday. Jefferson argued that skipping a rate hike in June will allow the Fed to see more data before making decisions of further policy tightening, while Harker said outright that he is in the camp for skipping. Market pricing for a June rate hike has thus softened, and the DXY is consolidating around mid-104 levels.

USD/CNH rose towards 7.12 after China’s May manufacturing PMI underwhelmed expectations and came in at 48.8, the lowest since Dec.  Non-manufacturing PMI also slipped to 54.5 in May. China’s loss of economic momentum post-reopening has been surprising, with Chinese equities now slipping to its lowest since Nov. Given a corresponding decline in equity inflows, CNY softness could persist until there are signs of improvement in both investment and consumption.

USD/JPY has fallen three days in a row towards 139, despite slight USD strength. Markets have trimmed their JPY shorts after Japan announced a 3-way MOF, BOJ, and FSA meeting on Tuesday to discuss markets. Kanda, the top official responsible for currency, underscored that the government is monitoring market moves, and will respond if necessary. Verbal intervention is the preferred method for Japan to guide the JPY, but officials have also shown last year that they will not shy from JPY market interventions if guidance is disregarded, particularly with the JPY now deeply misaligned from fundamentals.


Quote of the day
“A shift away from the low interest rate environment in Japan could test the resilience of global bond markets.”
     Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on 31 May 2023

1 June in history
The European Central Bank was founded in Brussels in 1988.



 

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]

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