EUR Rates: OATs are reflecting considerable risk premium
Elevated French risk premium.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow11 Sep 2025
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Political uncertainties in France have nudged OAT spreads over Bunds significantly wider over the past few weeks. 10Y OAT yield now trades higher than 10Y BTP. To recap, France has had a revolving door series of PMs over the past two years. Most recently, outgoing Prime Minister Bayrou’s attempt to cut the budget by EUR 44bn led to a series of events including the loss of a no-confidence vote earlier this week, which led to a collapse of the government. That said, a new PM (former defence minister Lecornu) has already been named and it remains to be seen if a compromise on budget and other pro-business reforms can be made with the other parties.

We think that OAT-Bund spreads are wide compared to the other Eurozone countries and may already adequately reflect ongoing political and budget issues even as downgrade risks beckons (Fitch has a negative outlook on France and is set to review the rating on Friday). From a debt load perspective, France is one of three major economies in the Eurozone with a government debt-to-GDP ratio of over 100%. That said, France’s ratio, at 114%, is considerably lower than that of Greece (153%) or Italy (138%). Instead, investors are punishing OATs because France showed the greatest increase in debt-to-GDP ratio (3.5 pct-pts) over the past year amidst political turmoil. Without a more concerted effort to curb fiscal deficits, the debt load would presumably spiral wider. That said, at these levels, there may be scope for OAT outperformance over the medium term vis-à-vis peers, especially versus BTPs. 



Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 

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