Genting Singapore: Reset into a year of market share recovery
- FY25 adj. EBITDA came in at SGD816mn, 15% y/y decline and 8% below our estimates of SGD888mn
- Uplift from VIP gaming was much lower than expected from a combination of slower than expected growth and lower win rate
- Announced final dividend at 2Scts despite lower earnings, remain committed to step up dividend given sustained earnings growth
- Maintain BUY with lower TP of SGD0.85 as we reduced our FY26F EBITDA by 5% on lower FY25 base
Results overview
4Q25 adj. EBITDA declined to SGD169mn, down 25% y/y, driven by weaker win rates and operating deleverage. The shortfall was primarily due to softer-than-expected gaming performance. While the broader gaming industry recorded strong growth in 2025, the company underperformed amid ongoing renovation disruption and intensified competition from MBS. VIP rolling volume still grew, but at a much slower 7% y/y versus more than 60% at MBS, and the benefit was diluted by a weaker win rate, which fell from 3.5% in 4Q24 to 2.9% in 4Q25. Mass gaming volume was also soft, largely due to a 34% y/y decline in slot volume (see Table 1 for details).
Hotel occupancy eased to 77% in 4Q25, partly because The Laurus was not fully available for booking. Management intentionally did not release the full room inventory despite the official opening in Oct 2025, as certain facilities such as the bar and spa were not yet operational.
The company declared a 2 Scts final dividend, taking FY25 dividends to 4 Scts. Despite the sharp earnings decline, management kept the nominal dividend unchanged y/y, implying a 124% payout ratio.
Key briefing takeaways
Key attractions are ramping up. The Laurus is operational ahead of schedule, with the spa and bar recently opened. Tenants are progressively moving into The Weave, with The People’s People microbrewery concept expected to anchor nightlife activity from 2Q26. Management expects tenants to be largely in place by 4Q26.
SGD5bn capex commitment for RWS 2.0 remains on track. Management shared it has spent about SGD1.8bn of the SGD6.8bn RWS 2.0 commitment. Capex is expected to peak in 2027–2028 at around SGD1.1bn per year, and the project remains within budget.
Room upgrade plans for Hotel Michael and Crawford Tower. With The Laurus online, management plans to refurbish Hotel Michael and Crawford Tower rooms progressively, floor-by-floor and during non-peak periods, to minimise disruption.
No indication of major cash returns; preference for progressive dividends. Management reiterated that given RWS 2.0 capex requirements, it prefers a progressive dividend policy. Dividend decisions will not be guided by payout ratio, but by the earnings growth trajectory, suggesting a steady dividend increase could be possible over time.
Our views
Cut FY26F EBITDA by 5% to reflect a softer starting point from FY25, but remain constructive on a sustained operational turnaround. Although FY25 gaming performance was disappointing, we expect a stronger FY26 as renovation-related disruptions fade and key attractions are largely back online. We also believe the new senior hires are reviewing operations and will drive initiatives to sharpen RWS’s competitiveness and recapture market share from MBS.
Maintain BUY with lower TP of SGD0.85. Our TP is based on 7.3x forward EV/blended FY26F and FY27F EBITDA, in line with the company’s 5-year average. We believe a blended EBITDA is appropriate as the company is on the verge of operational turnaround with strong double-digit growth for next 2 years. We see scope for a re-rating as the company unlocks value from its substantial cash reserves and improves its ROC, a key metric that correlates to valuation.
Overview of Singapore gaming industry
Source: LVS filings, GENS management, DBS estimates
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