Top-10 macro trade ideas for 2022
- Rates: We like SGD and CNY rates; we are also positioned for relative policy rate gaps in EM
- FX: We like USD against CNY and JPY, and expect SGD NEER to appreciate
- Credit: Asian energy and basic materials credit to rally in 2022
- Equities: We see upside for China/HK and Singapore stocks
We present our favourite macro trading strategies for the year
Key themes include inflation, Fed policy lift-off, economic reopening around an endemic Covid, and China credit stress
Idea #1 Double down on SGD rates outperformance
Idea #2 China’s divergences to be reflected in outperformance of CNY rates
Idea #3 Position for rate hike pricings to rise in Malaysia vs fall in Korea
Idea #4 CNY to play catchup to USD strength
Idea #5 USD/JPY to extend rise with rising US bond yields
Idea #6 More downside for EUR/SGD on a second tightening by MAS
Idea #7 Thai banks’ subordinated debt looks attractive with strong capital cushions
Idea #8 Asian energy and basic materials credit enjoys tailwinds from broader reopening
Idea #9 China/HK policies likely to revive equity risk appetite
Idea #10 Singapore equities to lead the region’s transition to living with COVID
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