China chart book - Shadow of an escalating trade war


Trade war’s impact will be unevenly distributed in local China. Disruption is expected to be more pronounced in the coastal regions that rely heavily on trade.
Nathan Chow22 May 2019
Photo credit: AFP Photo



• The Trump’s administration raised tariffs to 25% on nearly USD200bn of goods from China on May 10 and is preparing to add levies on the remaining Chinese imports (approx. USD325bn), with a public hearing scheduled on June 17.
• The proposed list would cover nearly every consumer product left untouched by previous tariffs, including cellphones (USD44.8bn) and laptops (USD38.7bn).
• Trade war’s impact will be unevenly distributed in local China. Disruption is expected to be more pronounced in the coastal regions that rely heavily on trade such as Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian.
• These areas are China’s traditional export powerhouses. Collectively, exports account for more than 36% of their GDP, much higher than the national average of 18.3%.



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Nathan Chow

Strategist - China & Hong Kong
nathanchow@dbs.com
 

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