SGD rates: Introduction to SORA
- Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) will be the new benchmark SGD interest rate
- A two-year transition period is ahead as SOR and Sibor get phased out
The Association of Banks in Singapore (ABS) announced that the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) will be the preferred benchmark borrowing rate within the next two years (see here).This appears in line with part of the global push to have a transactions-based benchmark that is transparent with appropriate levels of governance (see SOFR piece here). Singapore has opted for a two-step process. ABS has already commenced transitional testing for the enhanced Sibor (see here) in July with further details likely to be made available next year. SORA will be the longer-term plan to transit towards an overnight rate.
The SORA is the weighted rate of all SGD overnight cash transactions brokered in Singapore. In many ways, this rate is similar to Sibor given that banks are the dominant players in this market and there are no FX dynamics that can directly skew rates. The two key differences (between SORA and Sibor) are that SORA is purely transactions-based and has no ”term” component.
However, given that many financial products are linked to the SOR, it is probably worth considering the differences between SOR and SORA. SORA measures demand for SGD without considering changes in USD dynamics (while some FX spillover is inevitable, SORA does not require FX forwards as inputs). This suggests that the odds of SORA turning negative (like what the SOR did in 2011) is low. Back then, demand for USD through the period of risk aversion perversely drove SORs negative, creating complications for SOR-linked products. SORA can also be calculated independent of Libor, which can reduce uncertainties when Libor ceases in 2021.
SOR will be phased out as the SORA gains traction. Selected segments of the financial system still rely on swaps to fund themselves and this is not likely to change. However, these will be bilateral transactions and there may not be any need to have SOR fixings. Accordingly, we will have a period where SORA and Sibor will be the benchmark rates, compared to Sibor and SOR currently. It is likely that new derivative products will reference the SORA while new cash products will reference the Sibor (or any other benchmark rates).
We are awaiting clarity on how the upcoming changes will affect existing contracts that reference SOR. As SOR fixings will be around for a period of time, it is possible for contract amendments to be done on a bilateral basis. Alternatively, the authority can provide a blanket conversion “spread” overlay for existing SOR-linked products (3M SOR = SORA + term premium + SORA-SOR basis). For reference purposes, the lifetime average spread of the SORA over the 1D SOR stands at -12bps.
The SORA will eventually become the key benchmark SGD interest rate. However, this would likely take several years. The SORA may be too volatile for commercial purposes. Once term SORA (1M, 3M, 6M) comes into the picture, SIbor would become obsolete.
To read the full report, click here to Download the PDF.
The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and PT Bank DBS Indonesia (collectively, the “DBS Group”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Group does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation & the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only & is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Group, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Group or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Group & its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, & may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein & may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking & other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Sources for all charts & tables are CEIC & Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Blvd, Marina Bay Financial Center Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.
PT Bank DBS Indonesia, DBS Bank Tower, 33rd floor, Ciputra World 1, Jalan Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav 3-5, Jakarta, 12940, Indonesia. Tel: 62-21-2988-4000. Company Registration No. 09.03.1.64.96422.