DBS Annual Chartbook: 2019 in 64 charts


Over 64 charts, we look at key factors driving the macro outcome in 2019 across the EM-DM landscape and key asset classes.
Group Research10 Dec 2018
  • The market is pricing a dovish Fed in 2019, but the US economy and labour market remain strong
  • We expect across-the-board USD strength to continue at least through the first half of the year
  • China worries notwithstanding, ongoing spread widening may usher in value seeking credit investors
  • On equities, we see signs of emerging value on the back of this year’s sharp selloff in EM Asia
  • A key risk is that China-US trade skirmish becomes broader, dragging the world economy down
Photo credit: AFP Photo


• We look at key factors driving the macro outcome in 2019 across the EM-DM landscape and key asset classes

• External funding conditions will be tight even with low oil prices as G3 central bank liquidity tightens and Fed rate hikes continue

• The market has begun to price in a dovish Fed in 2019, but US economic momentum, especially its labour market, remains strong

Rates: The US economy and markets will have to correct considerably before a Fed relent takes place

FX: We expect across-the-board USD strength to continue at least through the first half of the year

Credit: China worries notwithstanding, ongoing spread widening may well usher in value seeking investors in Asian credit

Equities: We see signs of emerging value on the back of this year’s sharp selloff. Relative value of EM over DM could be a major investment theme next year

China’s sustained economic slowdown, a wall of debt maturity of its corporates, a range of policy support, and further RMB weakness will likely dominate headlines

• Faced with a challenging election, slowing growth momentum, narrow fiscal room, and lingering financial sector stress, India will likely see a dovish RBI

• Within ASEAN, the quantum of rate hikes will decrease as growth worries surface. Fiscal policy may take a more pro-active role, except for Malaysia. Electronics exports will likely weaken, affecting growth

• A key risk for next year is that China-US trade skirmish becomes broader, dragging the world economy and politics down with it.



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Taimur Baig, Ph.D.

Chief Economist - G3 & Asia
taimurbaig@dbs.com


Masyita Crystallin, Ph.D.

Economist – Indonesia & Philippines
masyita@dbs.com


Nathan Chow

Strategist - China & Hong Kong
nathanchow@dbs.com


Joanne Goh

Regional Equity Strategist
joannegohsc@dbs.com


Neel Gopalakrishnan

Credit Strategist – Emerging Markets
neelg@dbs.com


Eugene Leow

Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
eugeneleow@dbs.com


Chris Leung

Economist - China & Hong Kong
chrisleung@dbs.com


Ma Tieying

Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan
matieying@dbs.com


Radhika Rao

Economist – India, Thailand & Eurozone
radhikarao@dbs.com


Irvin Seah

Executive Director
irvinseah@dbs.com


Duncan Tan

FX and Rates Strategist - Asean
duncantan@dbs.com


Samuel Tse

Economist - China & Hong Kong
samueltse@dbs.com


Philip Wee

FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
philipwee@dbs.com

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