GDP Nowcast is best viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current quarter and forecasts of explanatory variables for the remaining term. Using this technique, we estimate GDP growth rate for China, India, Indonesia and Singapore.
Latest update: 22 September 2025
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025f | 2026f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Forecast | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25f | 4Q25f | |
| DBS Forecast | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| DBS Nowcast | 4.8 |
GDP Nowcast is as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current quarter and forecasts of explanatory variables for the remaining term while DBS forecasts refer to our inhouse forecasts.
China's economy grew by 5.2% in 2Q from 5.4% in 1Q, with a sequential gain of 1.1%qoq. The economy remains on track to meet the government's 5% GDP growth goals, thanks to the strong net exports growth amid the front-loading activities.
As per our Nowcast model, GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.8% in 3Q. The model shows that slowdown is mainly seen in industrial activity, retail sales, fixed asset investment and exports. Loans will show similar rate of growth while non-oil imports will improve slightly during the quarter. We expect this year's GDP to average 5.0% with additional fiscal stimulus and monetary easing. Still, trade tensions continue to pose downside risks, underscoring the need for timely policy support.
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