Bayerische Motoren Werke
The latest investment analysis on Bayerische Motoren Werke
Group Research - Equities7 Apr 2025
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Company Overview
Leading European premium OEM manufacturer. Key segments include (i) automotive segment (BMW, Mini, Rolls-Royce) (c.85% revenue), (ii) motorcycles (2%), (iii) financial services segment (25%) and (iv) corporate expenses/elimination (14%). Asia make up the largest contribution at 38%, followed by Europe (36%), Americas (24%) and others (2%). Top 3 country exposure in terms of unit sales includes China (33%), USA (15%) and Germany (11%). BMW has a lower margins than Audi, mainly attributed by higher exposure to mass market segment. BMW has a 75% stake in BMW-Alliance joint venture (JV), which has been fully consolidated in the group's financial statements since Feb 2022. The Quandt family owns 47% of BMW's shares.


Investment Overview
Leading premium OEM manufacturer, and an emerging BEV player. BMW's key competitive advantage lies in its premium brand status, backed by its innovative engineering and design, which helps it to achieve the number #1 position in the global premium segment. BMW was previously perceived as a laggard in the transition to BEVs but has yet achieved an impressive 15% mix in FY23 that has exceeded its German peers (VW at 8%). Going forward, 90% of BMW's segments is targeted to be covered by at least one BEV model. We believe BMW's EV execution has been impressive thus far, and is well positioned as an emerging luxury BEV player.

4Q2024/2024 results missed. BMW reported FY24A net income of EUR7.1bn (-37% y/y) which missed estimates by -10% on softer revenue (missed by 4%; -8% y/y), Car ASPs at EUR49k (missed by 4%; -6% y/y) and EBIT margins of 8.1% (below consensus of 8.4%, -3.8% y/y) despite volumes coming in-line due to intense pricing competition in China. 4Q24 results was similarly soft, with 4Q24 revenue and net income missing by -10% on soft 4Q24 EBIT margins of 5.2% (below consensus of 6.1%, -5.1% y/y). Across major segments, FY24A Car and Motorcycle segment reported soft EBIT margins of 6.3% (in-line, -3.5% y/y) and 6.1% (below consensus of 6.4%, -1.9% y/y), at the lower end of management's guidance of 6-7% for both segments. Across its markets, BMW saw continued challenges in China - BMW's biggest market at >30% of volume – with FY24A sales of 715k units (-14% y/y), while North America and Europe volumes remained flattish.

2025 guidance largely in-line. For FY25F, management considered EU-China, Mexico/Canada and steel/aluminium tariff impact in its guidance, which is estimated at -1% impact on EBIT margins, with Cars and Motorcycle EBIT margins guidance of 5-7% (consensus at 5.9%) and 5.5-7.5% (consensus at 6.8%) respectively. Management also guided flattish FY25F profit before taxes (PBT) on a y/y basis, in-line with expectations. Though, there could be more headwinds in our view arising from ongoing US tariff escalations. Positive catalysts remain: (i) 10 new models in China in 2025, (ii) Neue Klasse platform release in 2H25 with 40 new models by 2027 and (iii) share buyback programme of up to 10% of shares over the next 5 years, which can help to support positive share price sentiment.

Maintain HOLD with lower TP of EUR70 (previous TP of EUR85) to reflect latest share price sell-down on US tariff escalation. BMW is currently trading at forward PE of 5.9x (at -0.5SD below historical mean).


Risks
Firstly, BMW faces demand risks related to sales in China amid concerns of macroeconomic slowdown and aggressive competition, noting that China is BMW's largest market. Compared to BMW has lower ASP/pricing, which positions it to greater competition from other brands targeting the upper to mass market segment (e.g., BYD). Furthermore, rising EV competition can also lead to dilution in BMW's BEV market share and BEV margins. Lastly, we believe delays in the roll-out of its Neue Klasse platform can pose headwinds to BMW's share price.

Topic

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