Multi-Asset Weekly: Markets Challenged Amid Higher-for-Longer Prospects
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Chief Investment Office25 Sep 2023
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Equities: Markets close lower on higher-for-longer prospects

Global equities fell as Fed signals hawkishness. Global equity indices retreated for the week (ended 22 September) following comments from the Fed that rates may stay higher-for-longer. Global equities fell 2.7% for the week, with Developed Markets and Emerging Markets equity indices registering -2.7% and -2.1% respectively.

US equities had a tough week with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow recording weekly losses of -2.9%, -3.6%, and -1.9% respectively on the back of hawkish comments from the Fed; rates were held steady post Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting but a further hike is on the cards by the end of the year. European markets followed suit as both the Bank of England (BOE) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) reiterated the possibility of further rate hikes; STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 ceded 1.9% and 0.4% respectively for the week. Chinese equities ended the week in red; both HSI and HSCEI fell 0.7% for the week.

Topic in focus: Impact of rising energy prices on equities. Global oil prices have been on a tear, rising 29% since 27 June amid production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia and this has triggered concerns on the trajectory of risk assets.

However, beyond supply concerns, this recent oil price rally reflects resilient demand, particularly from China. Based on OPEC’s projections, global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.44m bpd this year, followed by 2.25m in 2024. The robust demand for oil suggests that the current rally is also a function of economic resilience and this augurs well for the outlook of risk assets.

Looking at the historical relationship between oil prices and equities has led to following observations:

  • Equities historically trended higher with oil prices during periods of economic expansion (signified by average PMI of 50 and above)
  • However, when average PMI is in contraction mode, equities markets will undergo correction when oil prices spiked (as was the case in 1990)

At 51.1, the blended PMI remained at expansionary level. Oil price has rallied some 20% since the trough in May and has coincided with an 8% rally in equities. The prevailing conditions today suggests that equity markets will trend higher in tandem with oil prices and we advise investors to stay engaged on quality plays.

Table 1: Historical relationship between oil price and equities


Source: Bloomberg, DBS
* Consisting of (a) ISM Manufacturing PMI for Jan-1970 till Jun-1997, (b) Average of ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Service PMI for Jul-1997 till present.
** Based on Bloomberg Crude Oil Historical Price 


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