Rates: Reprieve amidst lower oil
Govvies getting reprieve as oil prices moderate.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow4 May 2026
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Interest rates across the globe got some reprieve towards the end of last week as oil prices came off meaningfully. Brent crude briefly pushed above USD 120 / bbl (topping the period of stress seen in March), placing considerable upward pressures across government bond yields. However, this reversed as oil closed below USD 110 / bbl. There was no clear trigger for this down move in oil but we suspect that a combination of the UAE leaving OPEC (triggering oversupply worries longer term), the step up of alternative supplies of oil and optimism that a US-Iran deal may be in the offing could have contributed to this. Regardless, sentiment got a firm boost towards the end of the week as market stresses fell. 

From the rates perspective, oil in the USD 90-110 / bbl probably would not be too much of a concern to the economy. Granted, some rate hikes would be needed across the DM and EM space, but the hit unto growth would be manageable, especially considering the firm set of data that got released across Korea and Taiwan. Korea’s exports rose by 48% YoY while Taiwan’s 1Q GDP rose by 13.7% YoY). These bell weathers clearly indicate that the tech-driven expansion still has very strong momentum. Against this backdrop, we suspect that there could be modest bull-steepening across the DM space. In Asia, there should be considerable relief on the underperformers (IndoGBs, Philippines govvies and IGBs). Lower oil prices,  a weaker USD (due to oil and the BOJ’s intervention to strengthen the yen) and lower DM yields should ease fears of an aggressive tightening cycle ahead. Market participants are trying to move on from the Middle East conflict and may start to keep an eye on tariff developments (Trump has threatened to up auto tariffs on EU). 

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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