Cathay Pacific - Soaring above the competition
Related Stories
- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd - Tug of war between yield strength and fuel cost pressures06 Jul 2026
- Cathay Pacific - Tug of war between yield strength and fuel cost pressures17 Mar 2026
- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd - FY25 beats on slower yield normalisation; 2026 outlook constructive but fuel a near-term headwind12 Mar 2026
- 1H26 beat expectations, as stronger-than-anticipated yield and load factor gains offset an ex-fuel unit cost surprise
- Interim dividend of HKD0.26 was also notably better than expected, underpinned by the group’s resilient earnings and excess liquidity
- We now expect CX to defy the broader industry downturn and post marginal FY26F EBIT growth vs our prior forecast for a 4% decline
- Maintain BUY with higher TP of HKD18.0, reflecting the group’s lower post-reduction share count
Solid 1H26 performance on stronger yield and load factor gains, with strong uplift in dividends. 1H26 group EBIT of HKD6,595m rose 11.3% y/y, beating consensus by 15.9%. Core net profit surged 44.9% y/y to HKD5,290m, consistent with the positive profit alert management flagged in its June operating stats update. Stronger-than-expected passenger yields and load factors drove the outperformance, offsetting an unexpected rise in ex-fuel unit costs, with 1H26 operating margin declining by just 1.2ppt to 9.7% despite the spike in jet fuel costs.1H26 dividend per share (DPS) of HKD0.26 rose 30.0% y/y, a positive surprise against a street projecting a decline in FY26 DPS.
Volume, load factor and yield moved higher together across all businesses. Cathay Pacific 1H26 passenger revenue climbed 26.3% y/y to HKD43,203m as 1H26 RPK growth of 15.3% ran well ahead of 11.8% ASK growth, lifting 1H26 passenger load factor 2.7ppt to 87.5%, the highest first-half reading since 2005. Passenger yield of HKcts66.1 rose 9.4% y/y on higher fuel surcharges and resilient underlying demand, with corporate travel and premium leisure supporting front-cabin loads, and held up despite the dilutive effect of the longer-haul connecting traffic that drove the volume gain.
Cathay Cargo revenue rose 23.9% y/y to HKD13,806m on only 4.0% AFTK growth, with 1H26 cargo yield of HKD3.06 up 18.1% y/y and 1H26 cargo revenue per AFTK up 19.1% to HKD1.81, driven by AI infrastructure and technology-related flows.
HK Express delivered the largest step-up, with 1H26 revenue up 37.7% y/y to HKD4,367m and the 1H26 loss before net finance charges and taxation narrowing 86.1% y/y to HKD73m from HKD524m. Its 1H26 passenger yield of HKcts54.3 rose 25.7% y/y, far outpacing Cathay Pacific, reflecting shorter booking windows that repriced faster into the fuel move and a more favourable network mix less reliant on Japan.
Ex-fuel unit costs were the weak point, with maintenance and route charges driving almost the entire increase. Ex-fuel unit cost per ATK rose 5.4% y/y, a negative surprise against management's prior guidance for a low-single-digit FY26 decline. Maintenance and route charges drove nearly all of the increase. Management attributed the maintenance step-up to freighter checks deliberately weighted into 1H26 to protect freighter availability for the 2H26 cargo peak, with some checks running longer than planned. Route charges rose on broad inflation in overflight, landing and parking fees, alongside deliberate investment in lounges and inflight dining. Consequently, we now anticipate ex-fuel unit cost to see a low-single-digit increase in FY26F.
Demand commentary stayed constructive, with fuel repricing still to come through in 2H26. Management described 3Q26 bookings as strong through the midpoint of the quarter and framed 4Q26 as contingent on the Middle East, with underlying demand characterised as healthy since 4Q25 and before any diversion effect. Diverted flows extend beyond Asia to Europe, with visible gains on Australia to Europe and UK and on India to US traffic, while corporate travel, premium leisure and inbound Hong Kong traffic supported front-cabin load factors. Part of the 1H26 yield uplift would normalise if passengers regain confidence in Middle East hubs, which is the principal risk to 2H26 passenger unit revenue. Against that, 2Q26 still flew seats sold before jet fuel moved, so surcharge and fare repricing should recover a larger share of fuel cost in 3Q26 and 4Q26 than the roughly 50% achieved in 2Q26. On cargo, management expects AI-related demand to hold through year-end and plans to add freighter capacity on Americas trunk routes plus regional lift through Air Hong Kong. The European low-value parcel tax has produced no discernible impact on European lanes, although July and August are seasonally slow months.
Aircraft delivery cadence likely to cap capacity growth into FY27. Management reaffirmed group passenger capacity growth of around 10% for FY26, against 1H26 Cathay Pacific ASK growth of 11.8%, with the shape of this year's addition tilted more towards regional routes than the long-haul-heavy expansion of 2025. Only eight aircraft arrive in 2026, all narrowbody A320 and A321neo split across Cathay Pacific and HK Express, with the first joining in Aug-26. That limits any contribution to long-haul capacity, and the 97 aircraft ordered for 2027 and beyond do not begin to help until the first 777-9 arrives in 2H27, followed by A350F and A330-900 deliveries from 2028. Management was explicit that slot availability under the three-runway system is not the binding constraint and that intent to grow is undiminished, but that FY27 capacity growth will run below FY26.
Maintain BUY with higher TP of HKD18.0. We revise our FY26F EBIT estimate up slightly by 5%, primarily reflecting the group's solid 1H26 performance, and also lift our full-year DPS projection to HKD0.90, up from HKD0.70 previously, implying a 6.1% dividend yield at current share price levels. Our FY27F EBIT estimate is largely intact. We raise our TP to HKD18.0, reflecting the group's reduced share count post its share reduction, and the stronger near-term earnings and dividend trajectory.
Access more at DBS Insights Direct
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”). This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd., DBS HK, DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBSV HK”), and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd. (“DBSVS”), its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS HK.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., DBS HK, DBSV HK, DBSVS, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any information or sources or taken into account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the research. Accordingly, we do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set out in this report. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group, may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.
Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report.
This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer.
The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:
(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and
(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments stated therein.
Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets.
Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report.
On 3 June 2021, President J. Biden issued Executive Order 14032 (“the EO”), superseding Executive Order 13959 of 12 November 2020. The EO, which takes effect on 2 August 2021, prohibits US persons from investing in publicly traded securities or derivatives thereof from firms listed as Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies (“CMICs”). The list of CMICs can be found on the US Department of the Treasury’s website at https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/consolidated-sanctions-list/ns-cmic-list.
DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc (“DBSVUSA”), a US-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, has not participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months and does not engage in market-making.
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
General | This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. |
Australia | This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVS or DBSV HK. DBS Bank Ltd holds Australian Financial Services Licence no. 475946. DBSVS and DBSV HK are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS Bank Ltd and DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, and DBSV HK is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission under the laws of Hong Kong, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA. |
Hong Kong | This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited and DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited, all of which are registered with or licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to carry out the regulated activity of advising on securities. DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch is a limited liability company incorporated in Singapore. For any query regarding the materials herein, please contact Dennis Lam (Reg No. AH8290) at dbsvhk@dbs.com |
Indonesia | This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia. |
Malaysia | This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies. Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR |
Singapore | This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6878 8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report. |
Thailand | This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. |
United Kingdom | This report is produced by DBS HK which is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Bank Ltd, London Branch (“DBS UK”). DBS Bank Ltd is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS UK is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBS UK, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS UK. This communication is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment activity following from this communication will only be engaged in with such persons. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this communication. |
Dubai International Financial Centre | This communication is provided to you as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty as defined in the DFSA Rulebook Conduct of Business Module (the "COB Module"), and should not be relied upon or acted on by any person which does not meet the criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty under the DFSA rules. This communication is from the branch of DBS Bank Ltd operating in the Dubai International Financial Centre (the "DIFC") under the trading name "DBS Bank Ltd. (DIFC Branch)" ("DBS DIFC"), registered with the DIFC Registrar of Companies under number 156 and having its registered office at units 608 - 610, 6th Floor, Gate Precinct Building 5, PO Box 506538, DIFC, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (the "DFSA") with a DFSA reference number F000164. For more information on DBS DIFC and its affiliates, please see http://www.dbs.com/ae/our--network/default.page. Where this communication contains a research report, this research report is prepared by the entity referred to therein, which may be DBS Bank Ltd or a third party, and is provided to you by DBS DIFC. The research report has not been reviewed or authorised by the DFSA. Such research report is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information contained within is believed to be reliable, the information has not been independently verified by DBS DIFC. Unless otherwise indicated, this communication does not constitute an "Offer of Securities to the Public" as defined under Article 12 of the Markets Law (DIFC Law No.1 of 2012) or an "Offer of a Unit of a Fund" as defined under Article 19(2) of the Collective Investment Law (DIFC Law No.2 of 2010). The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying this communication or any associated documents in connection with this investment and it is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the DFSA. Accordingly, the DFSA has not approved this communication or any other associated documents in connection with this investment nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this communication or any associated documents, and has no responsibility for them. The DFSA has not assessed the suitability of any investments to which the communication relates and, in respect of any Islamic investments (or other investments identified to be Shari'a compliant), neither we nor the DFSA has determined whether they are Shari'a compliant in any way. Any investments which this communication relates to may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on any investments. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial adviser. |
United States | This report was prepared by DBS HK. DBSVUSA did not participate in its preparation. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered as research analysts with FINRA and are not associated persons of DBSVUSA. The research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on analyst compensation, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst. This report is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. This report may only be distributed to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) and to such other institutional investors and qualified persons as DBSVUSA may authorize. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate. |
Other jurisdictions | In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions. |
HONG KONG DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd Contact: Dennis Lam 13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong Tel: 852 3668 4181 Fax: 852 2521 1812 e-mail: dbsvhk@dbs.com
| SINGAPORE DBS Bank Ltd Contact: Paul Yong 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 Singapore 018982 Tel: 65 6878 8888 Fax: 65 65353 418 e-mail: groupresearch@dbs.com Company Regn. No. 196800306E |
THAILAND DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd Contact: Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul 989 Siam Piwat Tower Building, 14th-15th Floor Rama 1 Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok Thailand 10330 Tel. 66 2 857 7831 Fax: 66 2 658 1269 e-mail: DBSVTresearch@dbs.com Company Regn. No 0105539127012 Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand | INDONESIA PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia) Contact: Maynard Priajaya Arif DBS Bank Tower Ciputra World 1, 32/F Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav. 3-5 Jakarta 12940, Indonesia Tel: 62 21 3003 4900 Fax: 6221 3003 4943 e-mail: indonesiaresearch@dbs.com
|
|
|
Related Stories
- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd - Tug of war between yield strength and fuel cost pressures06 Jul 2026
- Cathay Pacific - Tug of war between yield strength and fuel cost pressures17 Mar 2026
- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd - FY25 beats on slower yield normalisation; 2026 outlook constructive but fuel a near-term headwind12 Mar 2026
Related Stories
- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd - Tug of war between yield strength and fuel cost pressures06 Jul 2026
- Cathay Pacific - Tug of war between yield strength and fuel cost pressures17 Mar 2026
- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd - FY25 beats on slower yield normalisation; 2026 outlook constructive but fuel a near-term headwind12 Mar 2026