- China’s April CPI to rise to 1.3%yoy (from 1.0% in March) amid higher oil prices.
- India’s April inflation to approach 4%yoy, from 3.4% month before.
- Malaysia’s 1Q26 final GDP data will likely confirm above-10-year trend growth of 5+% yoy.
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Central bank meetings
China
Consumer prices are expected to rise from 1.0% yoy in March to 1.3% in April, driven by higher oil prices amid the Middle East conflict. The South China Composite Index, tracking commodity price, accelerated further to 25.8% yoy in April, supported by price increases in upstream and midstream sectors, particularly in energy, metals, and industrial products. Given the strong correlation (0.84) between oil prices and PPI, the raw material purchasing price sub-index of PMI also stayed at 5-years high of 63.7 in April. However, downstream consumer prices are likely to remain relatively contained due to the pricing band mechanism, which helps moderate retail price fluctuations in key commodity and energy markets.
Malaysia
Malaysia’s 1Q26 final GDP data will likely confirm the above-10-year trend growth of 5+% yoy. Economic growth was likely broad-based across various sectors, underpinned by sustained domestic demand amid supportive household spending and continued investments, as well as robust exports performance driven by global artificial intelligence-related tailwinds.
India
India’s April inflation is expected to jump to 3.9% yoy from 3.4% month before, edging closer to the mid-point of the target range vs a benign 2.1% in FY26. Food inflation likely edged up toward 4.5% from 3.7%, reversing last year’s weak momentum, driven by selected perishables such as tomatoes and eggs, along with cereals and edible oils, and further exacerbated by untimely rains in some regions. Core inflation is however expected to stay stable and modest at 3.4%, helped by a pullback in precious metal prices. Signs of an updrift should also be captured under transport inflation due to ATF prices and services for restaurant & hospitality sector (commercial cooking gas price adjustments). The broader impact of high global oil prices is yet to percolate through retail inflation as pump fuel prices remain unchanged. Markets will also monitor El Niño developments and their impact on monsoon strength. Meanwhile, jump in imported costs on account of elevated commodity prices and weak rupee is likely to be more apparent in the WPI gauge, which had already outpaced retail inflation in March and is expected to extend the uptrend in April as well. We don’t expect the RBI policy committee to exhibit any urgency to tighten policy as yet.
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