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US Presidential Elections: Market Impact

Credit: The Trump Effect on Bonds

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CIO Industry Guide: August 2024

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There is rising clamour in the markets for easier monetary policy around the narrative of slowing economic growth momentum. We however don&rsquo;t believe major policy support response is warranted.

Macro Insights Weekly: Assessing global growth momentum

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<p><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: #ba372a;"><strong><u>Commentary: Assessing global momentum<br /><br /></u></strong></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">There is rising clamour in the markets for easier monetary policy around the narrative of slowing economic growth momentum. To assess the state of the global economy, a few considerations are key:<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">First, goods demand, which, after major pandemic induced volatility in the past few years, has stabilised. It is, however, by no means reflecting substantial stress in affordability on the demand side or earnings on the producers&rsquo; side. PMI manufacturing is still hovering around 50 globally. The services sector, meanwhile, continues to roar ahead, characterised by strong 50+ PMI readings.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Second, the global trade cycle, which, despite weak commodity prices, continues to hum along. Supply chain expansion, friend-and-nearshoring, industrial policy, and the AI tech cycle have fuelled substantial demand for parts, machinery, and electronics. From China to Singapore, South Korea to Taiwan to Vietnam, exports are growing by high-single to double-digit rates. Order books are in good shape too.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Third, the state of the cycle. US and EU may be showing signs of a maturing cycle, having grown on the back of strong public sector-supported spending the last few years, it is far from that case in Asia. The region is still undergoing the process of post-pandemic normalisation of its travel/tourism industry. The region is also benefitting from supply chain realignment, with investments rising from both Western and Chinese companies.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Real time estimates show key economies growing at trend rates. A snapshot of 3Q Nowcasting shows India at +7% real GDP growth, Indonesia: +5%, China: a tad below 5%, Singapore: +2.5%, and the US: +2%. These number by no means indicate a global economy at risk of a major slowdown.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">US labour market looms about all else, goes the market narrative. Recent dataflow, showing a reduced pace of hiring and decline in vacancy rates, supports Fed rate cuts to begin from this month onward. We think Fed officials will look at these developments along with the fact that the labour force continues to expand, bringing in previously discouraged workers to the fray, and hourly wage growth is well ahead of inflation. With unemployment at low-4%, these data are supportive of an economy with still-strong underpinning for consumption. Kansas Fed&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/data-and-trends/labor-market-conditions-indicators/">labour market conditions indicators</a> suggest the level of activity is little changed (above historical averages), although momentum decelerated moderately in July.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">We find little to warrant major policy response to support the global economic cycle. It may not be red hot, but the ongoing cooling is orderly. No panic response needed whatsoever.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">To read the full report, click here to&nbsp;<strong><a href="/pdfController.page?pdfpath=/content/article/pdf/AIO/092024/240909_insights_weekly.pdf">Download the PDF</a></strong>.</span></span></p>
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<h4 class="name">Taimur Baig, Ph.D.</h4>
<h5 class="designation">Chief Economist - Global</h5>
<a href="mailto:taimurbaig@dbs.com">taimurbaig@dbs.com</a></div>
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<h4 class="name">Nathan Chow&nbsp;</h4>
<h5 class="designation">Senior Economist and Strategist - China &amp; Hong Kong&nbsp;</h5>
<a href="mailto:nathanchow@dbs.com">nathanchow@dbs.com</a></div>
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<br /><br />Subscribe&nbsp;<a href="mailto:groupresc@dbs.com?subject=Subscribe_to_Economics_Macro_Strategy_research_materials">here</a>&nbsp;to receive our economics &amp; macro strategy materials.<br />To unsubscribe, please click&nbsp;<a href="mailto:groupresc@dbs.com?subject=Unsubscribe_to_Economics_Macro_Strategy_research_materials">here</a>.</div>
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Southeast Asia has become attractive to investors lately, but so have other emerging economies. Recognising key headwinds, we still see room for substantial regional prosperity in the decade ahead.

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34

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<p><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Southeast Asia has grown despite headwinds. &nbsp;Over the last three decades, the region withstood shocks from the Asian financial crisis, the SARS pandemic, a global financial crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic. And it stayed the course.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Southeast Asia grew, even as the China miracle siphoned manufacturing investment and jobs away from the region.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">In recent years, Southeast Asia has become more attractive to investors, but so have India, Mexico, and Eastern European countries.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">This is the right moment for Southeast Asia to leverage its newly improved investment climate and well-established, dynamic sectors.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Much of the world is bracing for lower growth because of higher interest rates, unsustainable government spending levels, trade protectionism, and the potential fallout from the US-China rivalry. But in Southeast Asia, tailwinds should prevail.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Southeast Asia comprises of six major markets and a handful of smaller ones. While there are important links between markets and opportunities to pursue regional approaches, each country&rsquo;s potential must be addressed individually.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">While many economists focus on FDI as the key barometer for confidence in an economy, we assign substantial weight to domestic investment. Most Southeast Asian countries are seeing robust growth of domestic investment, which underscores local confidence in the region&rsquo;s growth prospects relative to alternatives.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Effective government action will play a role in catalysing growth. The China model involves the state setting priorities and bending funding toward them. Execution occurs at the city and provincial levels through state-enabled &ldquo;hyper-competition.&rdquo; Entrepreneurism plays a critical role in fully realizing growth potential.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">We say, let&rsquo;s unfurl the mainsails.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">To read the full report, click here to&nbsp;<strong><a href="/pdfController.page?pdfpath=/content/article/pdf/AIO/082024/240801_insights_sea_outlook.pdf">Download the PDF</a></strong>.</span><br /></span></p>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Taimur Baig, Ph.D.</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Chief Economist - Global</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:taimurbaig@dbs.com">taimurbaig@dbs.com</a></span></div>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Radhika Rao</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Senior Economist &ndash; Eurozone, India, Indonesia</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:radhikarao@dbs.com">radhikarao@dbs.com</a></span></div>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Ma Tieying, CFA</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, &amp; Taiwan&nbsp;</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:matieying@dbs.com">matieying@dbs.com</a></span></div>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Chua Han Teng, CFA</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Economist - Asean</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:hantengchua@dbs.com">hantengchua@dbs.com</a></span></div>
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Crypto markets are volatile and increasingly focused on the US elections for cues toward greater acceptability. CBDC trials, design, and experiments continue.

Digital Assets Update 3Q24: Crypto and US politics

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<p><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">In an extraordinary set of developments, US elections and cryptos have found a non-trivial area of overlap. While Donald Trump has been quoted launching a strident support for cryptos, particularly bitcoin, even the Kamala Harris team has given constructive signals toward private digital currencies. We think this reflects the wealth of the crypto lobby, as election finances are at stake. We are less sure if this translates into major regulatory support post elections. On the central bank digital currency space, we see tangible progress toward refining the parameters of wholesale CBDC. The bottom line is that both private and public digital assets are very much in play, with past instances of strident regulatory action increasingly in the rearview mirror.</span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">To read the full report, click here to <strong><a href="/pdfController.page?pdfpath=/content/article/pdf/AIO/082024/240820_insights_digital_assets.pdf">Download the PDF</a></strong>.&nbsp;</span><br /><br /></p>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Taimur Baig, Ph.D.</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Chief Economist - Global</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:taimurbaig@dbs.com">taimurbaig@dbs.com</a></span><br /><br /></div>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Chang Wei Liang</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">FX &amp; Credit Strategist, Global</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:weiliangchang@dbs.com">weiliangchang@dbs.com</a></span></div>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Nathan Chow</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Senior Economist and Strategist - China &amp; Hong Kong&nbsp;</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:nathanchow@dbs.com">nathanchow@dbs.com</a></span></div>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Samuel Tse&nbsp;</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Economist - China &amp; Hong Kong&nbsp;</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:samueltse@dbs.com">samueltse@dbs.com</a></span></div>
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US, Europe, Japan

Webinar: Digital Assets Update 3Q24

The BOJ has announced a reduction in monthly JGB purchases from JPY 6tn to JPY 3tn, and raised the overnight call rate from 0-0.1% to 0.25% 

Japan: Gentle QT and strategic rate hike

Search interest for Ethereum has dipped, with US ETF providers still in regulatory review as they prepare for listing sometime in summer.

Crypto Digest: Shifting Ethereum interest and prices

Eurozone: ECB begins to loosen policy brakes 

Markets are anticipating the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs in the US, helping Ether catch up with Bitcoin in price.

Crypto Digest: Ethereum ETFs are coming

Asset Risks: Benign credit risk score 

The US housing market, accounting for 15%+ of GDP, has been resilient through sizeable rise in interest rates. The outlook remains constructive, despite higher-for-longer expectations.

Macro Insights Weekly: Resiliency of US residential housing market

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Malaysia: BNM’s unchanged policy rate amid ‘goldilocks’ conditions

Research Library

Singapore has experienced sustained currency appreciation pressures in recent years.

Singapore: Evolving current account dynamics

DACS: Hong Kong credit could see greater relief on rate cuts 

GDP Nowcast: Singapore’s GDP growth to moderate slightly in 3Q24 

Thailand: Steady policy interest rate, tighter financial conditions flagged 

Our key takeaways from the National Day Rally 2024.

Singapore: National Day Rally 2024 – policies for inclusive growth

Economic activities saw broad-based deceleration in July.

China: Broad-based slowdown

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US Presidential Elections: Market Impact

Credit: The Trump Effect on Bonds

CIO Insights 3Q24: Risk Assets in Play

Space - The Next Frontier

CIO Industry Guide: August 2024

Equity Strategy: Commercialisation of AI

US, Europe, Japan

Macro Insights Weekly: Assessing global growth momentum

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34

Digital Assets Update 3Q24: Crypto and US politics

Webinar: Digital Assets Update 3Q24

Japan: Gentle QT and strategic rate hike

Crypto Digest: Shifting Ethereum interest and prices

Eurozone: ECB begins to loosen policy brakes

Crypto Digest: Ethereum ETFs are coming

Asia

Macro Insights Weekly: Assessing global growth momentum

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34

Malaysia: BNM’s unchanged policy rate amid ‘goldilocks’ conditions

Research Library

Singapore: Evolving current account dynamics

DACS: Hong Kong credit could see greater relief on rate cuts

GDP Nowcast: Singapore’s GDP growth to moderate slightly in 3Q24

Thailand: Steady policy interest rate, tighter financial conditions flagged

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