- Singapore's final 2Q26 GDP likely to be revised up.
- India’s July inflation is likely to hold steady at 4.4% yoy.
- China’s credit demand is expected to stay weak, with mid- to long-term lending softening.
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FORTHCOMING DATA RELEASES
India
Inflation and trade numbers are due in the second week of August. Headline inflation in July was largely steady at 4.4% yoy vs June. High frequency data on food staples point to a rise in pulses, sugar, milk and edible oils, while vegetables have stabilised. A catch-up in rainfall in July has helped boost sowing activity. Adjustments in domestic retail fuel products (non-subsidised LPG was up 10% yoy in Jul) are also likely to reflect in the utilities and fuel segments. Core readings, however, should be benign at sub-4% in July, helped also by moderation in precious metals in the period. Separately, trade numbers should see the resilience in exports outweighed by a higher import bill, keeping the trade balance in red to the tune of -$29bn, close to -$30bn in June.
China
Credit demand remains weak, with new yuan loan is expected to stay at RMB10.8bn in July. Both corporate and household medium- to long-term lending likely softened amid cautious borrowing sentiment and continued mortgage prepayments. M2 growth is expected to remain at 8.0% yoy. Precautionary savings stayed elevated, while weak property prices continued to weigh on household wealth. The wide gap between M2 and M1 growth is expected to persist, reflecting subdued corporate investment and household consumption.
Singapore & Malaysia
We expect Singapore’s final 2Q26 GDP print to be revised up to 5.9% yoy and 1.3% qoq sa, from the advance estimates of 5.7% yoy and 1.1% qoq sa. The modestly higher growth figures were driven by a firmer manufacturing outturn than initially reported, alongside a possible upward revision to services growth amid stronger expansion in trade-related services, as indicated by the robust pickup in re-exports in June. With 1H26 growth tracking well above trend, we see a high likelihood that the government will upgrade its official 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.0-5.0% from 2.0-4.0%, even as it continues to flag high uncertainty and downside risks to the outlook.
Separately, Malaysia’s final 2Q26 GDP release will confirm an acceleration in growth at 5+% yoy, supported by stronger exports expansion driven by global artificial intelligence-related tailwinds, as well as sustained domestic demand underpinned by resilient household spending and continued investment implementation.
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