Preliminary unofficial results, with over 90% of votes counted, from Thailand’s general elections held on 8 February 2026 indicated a decisive lead by the Bhumjaithai Party, reducing political uncertainty and pointing to policy continuity. Although no single party secured an outright majority, Bhumjaithai, with a projected 194 seats in the 500-member lower house parliament, is expected to lead the next coalition government and extend the mandate it received from September 2025. The most likely coalition partners include the Pheu Thai Party (76 seats), and the Kla Tham Party (57 seats). With a comfortable buffer of 327 seats, this coalition configuration significantly reduces the risks of legislative deadlock, such as delays to the FY2027 budget progress. We see increased likelihood of political stability with a technocratic administration to tackle the economic challenges in the coming years, following a turbulent domestic political landscape since the 2023 polls.
Foreign portfolio inflows have been supportive in the first two months of 2026 (as of February 9), despite election concerns, and are likely to continue at least in the near term. The Thai baht and equities rallied yesterday on the supportive election outcome. Investor confidence and risk appetite should improve further as political risk premia gradually compress, supported by greater clarity over the incoming government and the high degree of policy continuity implied by the polls. In this context, the clear election results reduce the urgency for additional near-term monetary policy easing by the still-dovish Bank of Thailand in February, particularly if a stable government is able to deploy proactive and calibrated fiscal measures to support economic growth, while remaining mindful of the 70% of GDP overall public debt ceiling.
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