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Central bank meetings

Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) (April 14): We anticipate the MAS will slightly increase the slope of the SGD NEER policy band in its April 14 statement. We view this move as a normalisation that reverses last year’s slope reduction to combat a higher global inflation landscape driven by the Middle East conflict. The government’s sequencing is telling: the MAS will lead with a higher inflation outlook on April 14, followed by the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s (MTI) GDP revision in May. With Brent crude prices firmly elevated around USD100 per barrel, and exports maintaining resilience, the policy priority has pivoted toward addressing imported inflation before it de-anchors underlying price expectations. To reflect this, we expect the MAS to raise its core inflation forecast to 1.5-2.5% (from 1-2%) and the CPI-All Items projection higher to reflect the current energy shock.

Also to be released concurrently with the MAS's policy decision are the 1Q26 advance GDP estimates, which we expect to register at 5.4% yoy (-1.1% qoq sa), compared with 6.3% yoy (2.1% qoq sa) in 4Q25. The resilient yoy performance was supported by global AI tailwinds, which have underpinned growth in trade-related manufacturing and wholesale trade, as well as robust expansion in modern services and construction.

Forthcoming data releases

China: Economic growth is expected to improve from 4.5% yoy in Q4 2025 to 4.7% in Q1 2026, supported by strong external demand for Chinese goods. Double-digit growth in trade is expected to underpin resilient industrial production. The official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory at 50.4 in March, with production and new orders rising to 51.4 and 51.6, respectively, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing “anti-involution” initiative. On the investment front, sentiment remains cautious, weighed down by continued contraction in real estate investment. Foreign direct investment is likely to decline, as geopolitical uncertainty dampens investment appetite. On the consumption side, retail sales are expected to moderate slightly in March due to base effects from earlier trade-in programs. Household sentiment remains weak, reflecting uncertain job prospects, slower income growth, and elevated precautionary savings. Declining property prices continue to erode household wealth, suggesting that consumption will likely remain subdued in the near term.

Malaysia: Malaysia’s incoming data are likely to reflect resilient economic growth and contained inflation in 1Q26, despite the Middle East shock since February 27. We expect robust advance GDP growth estimate of 5.5% yoy in 1Q26, albeit lower than 6.3% yoy in 4Q25. Growth was likely supported by continued strength in export-oriented electrical & electronics manufacturing, bolstered by global AI tailwinds, as well as supportive domestic demand driven by ongoing construction and investment momentum, while services expanded robustly amid these spillovers, alongside sustained household spending. We anticipate headline inflation to rise but remain contained at 1.7% yoy in March, from 1.4% yoy in February. This reflected some upside pressures from food prices due to festive-related spending, and energy prices following the spike in global oil prices stemming from the Iran war, although the overall impact is mitigated by fiscal subsidies.

Singapore: We expect Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to sustain growth for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, expanding by a faster pace of 10.3% yoy, compared with 4.0% yoy in February. The performance was likely supported by superior growth of electronics domestic exports relative to weaker non-electronics shipments, as electronics continued to be bolstered by global AI tailwinds. While non-electronics domestic exports may have rebounded as adverse base effects from the previous month’s Lunar New Year faded, segments such as petrochemicals were likely under pressure due to a naphtha feedstock supply crunch stemming from the Middle East conflict.

India: March inflation is expected to inch up to 3.45% yoy, from 3.2% month before, with the headline likely to partially reflect increase in cooking gas, energy index and ex-factory input costs, while retail fuel and food costs were benign. Precious metals corrected in the month, which likely slowed the pace of rise in the sub-component. We expect the impact of higher energy prices to gradually percolate in the coming months as replacement supplies arrive with a lag. Core inflation, meanwhile, is likely to stay below 4%, reducing the need for the central bank to assume a hawkish stance in the near-term (RBI: Neutral pause). 

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