Thailand: Domestic political troubles add to tariff uncertainties
Rising political uncertainty.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng20 Jun 2025
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Domestic political uncertainty due to the exit of Bhumjaithai Party from Thailand’s ruling coalition government is clouding an already fragile economic landscape. This was reflected in the Thai baht (-0.6%) and equities (-2.4%), which were the worst regional performers yesterday. Bhumjaithai Party, the second largest in the Pheu Thai-led ruling coalition, holding 69 seats in the lower house, withdrew from the alliance on June 18, due to a lack of trust in Thai Prime Minister (PM) Paetongtarn Shinawatra following a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen in which she criticised the Thai army. This withdrawal leaves the ruling coalition with a slim majority and little room for further exits. Four potential scenarios include: 1) PM resignation, 2) parliament dissolution and snap elections, 3) cabinet reshuffle without PM quitting, and 4) a low probability military intervention. We think that political turmoil, if prolonged, would only undermine business confidence at a time when the Thai economy is already grappling with external headwinds from the US tariff roller coaster.

The US tariff chaos poses significant downside threat to Thai exports, particularly in 2H25, in our view. While a 90-day reciprocal tariff pause spurred front-loading of orders, contributing to the strong 18.4% YoY goods exports growth in May 2025, this temporary boost would be followed by a significant payback through decelerating trade in 2H25. The outlook is complicated by heightened uncertainty surrounding negotiations between Thailand and the US aimed at reducing US tariffs from the 36% proposed on Liberation Day. The clock is ticking down to the end of the pause on July 8, with Thailand only officially starting talks with the US and plans to submit a final proposal to the US within this week, following delays in April and May. We still see room for the Bank of Thailand to cut its policy interest rate by at least 25bps in 2025 to support a slower economy, although it might opt for a dovish hold during its June 25 decision to assess the impact of the two 25bps rate reductions in January and April amid evolving developments and to preserve diminishing policy space.

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]



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