Diverging September Expectations
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Economics Research14 Aug 2026
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US/Japan: Fed September hike odds recede as BOJ case strengthens.The markets reduced the probability of a September Fed hike to 40% from 72% at the end of July, driven by last Friday's negative nonfarm payrolls and slower CPI inflation readings. The negative print of nonfarm payroll (-23k) in July was eye-catching, as was the negative revision of 103k over the preceding two months. With these data in mind, NFP averaged 20k over the past three months. 20k may be close to the current breakeven rate of net job creation without causing the unemployment rate to rise. Barring any other sizable revisions going forward, job creation is not outsized, and investors are not going to put too much weight on the decline in unemployment rate to 4.1%. Meanwhile, US headline inflation fell a second month to 3.4% y/y in July from its 4.2% high in May, seen after Operation Epic Fury. Core inflation declined to 2.5% from 2.9%, returning to January-February levels before the Middle East conflict. With average hourly earnings modestly lower, tracking core inflation amid a softer-than-expected labour market, Fed officials are likely to be less concerned about a repeat of second-round effects of inflation that emerged after Covid-19.

In Japan, the Summary of Opinions from the July BOJ meeting, released this week, was materially more hawkish than the headline decision suggested. While only one of the nine board members voted for a rate hike, at least three expressed explicit concerns about upside inflation risks and argued that the pace of rate hikes could be accelerated. From an economic fundamentals perspective, there are growing reasons for the BOJ to bring forward its tightening cycle. Wage-driven reflation and domestic recovery remain firm. Base wage growth has held at around 3% y/y for six consecutive months, while CPI excluding fresh food, energy, and institutional factors has remained around 2% for six months. July’s Tokyo CPI also indicated that underlying inflation momentum has begun to strengthen, reinforcing the case for further policy normalisation.

However, an early September hike would need to be managed carefully, as markets have not yet fully priced in such a move. A September hike would mark the first time since 1989-90 that the Bank has raised rates once every three months; potentially shifting market expectations for both the pace and terminal level of the tightening cycle and triggering a significant unwinding of JPY carry trades—particularly if the September FOMC meeting does not clearly signal further Fed tightening.

We have pencilled in a BOJ policy rate hike to 1.25% in October, while currently assigning a nearly 50% probability to an earlier move at the September meeting. In the coming weeks, the key factors to watch will be the July/August wage and CPI data, USD/JPY dynamics, BOJ officials’ speeches, and the outcome of the September FOMC meeting.

Figure 1: Case for a September Fed hike reduced

Source: Bloomberg, DBS




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