CIO Insights 1Q24: Shifting Currents
For Chief Investment Officer Hou Wey Fook, the shifting currents signal the importance of putting cash to work in multi-asset portfolios
Chief Investment Office14 Dec 2023
  • Slower economic growth & inflation rate point to a peak in US rates
  • Favour IG corporates for the best risk-reward and include measured exposure to Private Credit funds
  • Favour US Tech for quality growth & Asia Equities for deep value. Downgrade dividend-paying stocks
  • Shift Equities to underweight, stay overweight Bonds and Private Assets
  • Gold's resilience underpinned by peaking rates & dollar amid heightened geopolitical risk
Article image
Photo credit: iStock
Read More
Dear valued clients,

We had made a bold call since the start of 2023 for investors to put cash to work with “The Return of 60/40”.

Our call has paid off. Despite headwinds from geopolitical uncertainties and recession risks, our Barbell Strategy, comprising outsized exposures to income-generating Bonds on one end and secular-growth Equities on the other, recorded 10.7% of gains for 2023 (as of 1 Dec).

From the time the Fed started policy tightening, a total of 525 bps of hikes was done over 16 months, one of the fastest in its history. Interest rates, being the discount factor for valuing future cash flows, have always been the key determinant for financial asset performance, thus explaining the challenging conditions for Equities and Bonds in periods of heightened rates.

Now, we see a peaking of US rates as economic data on growth and inflation point to a softening. As a result, we believe 2024 will be a supportive environment for risk assets.

The sharp divergence between US Big Tech stocks or the “Magnificent 7” versus the broad market index over 2023 has propelled strong outperformance of our Barbell Portfolio over underlying benchmarks.

We expect this to continue. Elevated bond yields today pose a high bar for Equities to clear. Apart from quality Consumer Discretionary and Technology-related companies, earnings growth of most companies in the other sectors will be challenged by > 6% yields that Bonds can offer.

Hence, it will be no surprise that growth stocks will continue outperforming value stocks, thus reinforcing the efficacy of our Barbell Strategy into 2024.

In this publication, we also highlight the theme of next generation infrastructure and luxury, along with the opportunities that abound in these sectors.

I wish you a prosperous year of investing.


Hou Wey Fook, CFA
Chief Investment Officer


Download the PDF to read the full 1Q24 CIO Insights report.

Topic

Explore more

CIO InsightsGlobal
Disclaimers

This information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS Bank”) and is for information only.  This publication is intended for DBS Bank and its subsidiaries or affiliates (collectively “DBS”) and clients to whom it has been delivered and may not be reproduced, transmitted or communicated to any other person without the prior written permission of DBS Bank. 

This publication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to you to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction as described, nor is it calculated to invite or permit the making of offers to the public to subscribe to or enter into any transaction for cash or other consideration and should not be viewed as such.

The information herein may be incomplete or condensed and it may not include a number of terms and provisions nor does it identify or define all or any of the risks associated to any actual transaction. Any terms, conditions and opinions contained herein may have been obtained from various sources and neither DBS nor any of their respective directors or employees (collectively the “DBS Group”) make any warranty, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness and thus assume no responsibility of it. The information herein may be subject to further revision, verification and updating and DBS Group undertakes no responsibility thereof.

All figures and amounts stated are for illustration purposes only and shall not bind DBS Group. This publication does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Before entering into any transaction to purchase any product mentioned in this publication, you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and has made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in light of your own objectives and circumstances. In particular, you should read all the relevant documentation pertaining to the product and may wish to seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser or make such independent investigations as you consider necessary or appropriate for such purposes. If you choose not to do so, you should consider carefully whether any product mentioned in this publication is suitable for you.  DBS Group does not act as an adviser and assumes no fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise, arising from any arrangement or entrance into any transaction in reliance on the information contained herein.  In order to build your own independent analysis of any transaction and its consequences, you should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors as you deem appropriate to ensure that any assessment you make is suitable for you in light of your own financial, accounting, tax, and legal constraints and objectives without relying in any way on DBS Group or any position which DBS Group might have expressed in this document or orally to you in the discussion.

Any information relating to past performance, or any future forecast based on past performance or other assumptions, is not necessarily a reliable indicator of future results.

If this publication has been distributed by electronic transmission, such as e-mail, then such transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of the Information, which may arise as a result of electronic transmission. If verification is required, please request for a hard-copy version.

This publication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

If you have received this communication by email, please do not distribute or copy this email. If you believe that you have received this e-mail in error, please inform the sender or contact us immediately. DBS Group reserves the right to monitor and record electronic and telephone communications made by or to its personnel for regulatory or operational purposes. The security, accuracy and timeliness of electronic communications cannot be assured.