Profile
Previous Close Price
Key Statistics
| Dec THB mn | 2024 | 2025f | 2026f |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,725 | 12,616 | 13,462 |
| Net Profit | 1,282 | 1,599 | 1,746 |
| Profit Gth (%) | (8.8) | 24.7 | 9.3 |
| PE (X) | 31.3x | 25.1x | 23.0x |
| Div Yield (%) | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| P/BV (X) | 3.1x | 3.0x | 2.8x |
Recent Developments
- 06 Mar 2025Bangkok Chain Hospital: Downside limited; poised for FY25F growth
- 03 Mar 2025Bangkok Chain Hospital: Earnings set to bounce back
- 06 Feb 2025Bangkok Chain Hospital: Downside limited; poised for growth in FY25F
- 14 Nov 2024Bangkok Chain Hospital: Sit and hoard
- 14 Nov 2024Bangkok Chain Hospital PCL: 3Q24 results in line
- 31 Oct 2024Bangkok Chain Hospital: Negatives largely priced in
- 28 Aug 2024Bangkok Chain Hospital: Hoping for clear skies
- 27 May 2024Bangkok Chain Hospital: In anticipation of a better 2H24
- 16 May 2024Bangkok Chain Hospital: 1Q24 results in line
- 17 Mar 2024Bangkok Chain Hospital: Anticipating strong deliveries in FY24F
Our Views
2025 earnings to grow 25% to THB1,598mn. We expect revenue to grow 25% y/y in FY25F, driven by i) the absence of THB245mn in revenue reversal (THB81mn in 2Q24 and THB164mn in 4Q24) under the SSO scheme; and ii) narrower losses from three new hospitals (from THB181mn in FY24F to THB100-120mn in FY25F). Meanwhile, revenue contribution from Middle Eastern patients should normalise to THB400mn (-15% y/y, 23% of total revenue) in FY25F (vs. THB472mn in FY24F and THB998mn in FY23F).
New capex cycle to drive long-term growth. BCH now owns and operates 16 hospitals, with a total of 2,313 active beds. It aims to operate 20 hospitals by 2028, focusing on the eastern regions and the EEC area. In 3Q24, BCH opened a cancer centre near the World Medical Centre (WMC), with an investment budget of THB300mn. We believe the new bed capacity will help support BCH’s long-term growth path via increasing revenue intensity.
Maintain BUY with a DCF-based TP of THB19.00. We arrive at a TP of THB19.00 based on a DCF valuation (WACC of 8.20%, terminal growth of 2.50%), which implies a 30x FY25F PE. We believe weak earnings are already priced in. BCH’s FY25F earnings should rebound on less revenue volatility, with growth from its existing hospitals and new services/clinics. I is trading at 25.0x 2025F PE and offers a dividend yield of 2.4-2.6% in FY25F-FY26F.
Risks
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