Economics Weekly: Global Growth Challenges
Keep abreast of the latest economics research
Economics Research8 Sep 2023
  • Global: Global economy is undergoing contrasting developments
  • US on course to be largest source of global demand, with challenging conditions in China and Europe
  • India: Inflation to stay elevated in August before pulling back in September
  • Taiwan: Rebound in exports, inventory reduction and chip price stabilisation indicative of recovery
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash
Read More

Global: Can US outperformance prop up the global economy?

The global economy is undergoing contrasting developments. China was supposed to rebound sharply this year on the back of post-pandemic recovery, but it has been underwhelming so far. Growth, despite favourable base effects, is likely to come in at 5% or lower this year, setting China on an even lower GDP growth print next year. China’s lower than expected developments have weighed in on commodity prices and the global goods trade. With inflation all but disappearing, its addition to the global nominal GDP (real GDP plus GDP measure of price changes) is also likely to be disappointing. Still, as a testament to its scale, China will account for a fifth of global demand this year.

Europe has slowed, as expected. Growth is likely to come in well below 1%, perhaps closer to 0.5% this year, with Germany, its largest economy, projected to contract. Elevated inflation, sharp rises in borrowing costs, still-high energy costs, and lacklustre export demand have all hurt European manufacturing.

India, presently the darling of Emerging Markets, is on track to receive substantial Foreign Direct Investment and portfolio flows, and its asset markets are buoyant, but the economy is unlikely to keep pace with last year, growing by about 5.5-6% this calendar year. Some of the post-pandemic rebound in demand has faded, with high inflation hurting consumption sentiments and fiscal going into consolidation mode. We expect India to contribute about 7% to global demand growth.

Then there is the US, on course to be yet again the largest source of global demand, despite the burden of ever rising interest rates. We estimate that the US will account for nearly 30% of 2023 global GDP growth, about a tenth more than we had thought likely at the beginning of this year. Thanks to its outperformance, global growth will remain over 3% this year (it was 3.5% in 2022).

US outperformance cannot offset the entirety of China and Europe’s sub-par outcome this year, and its capacity to prop up global demand is likely to decline going forward. Without a bottoming of demand in China and Europe, another year of 3+% global growth in 2024 is rather unlikely.

Case in point, the global electronics trade. The US is going through an Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom with its consumers remaining flush with cash, and yet, electronics exporters have been seeing subdued or declining demand worldwide. Similarly, the commodity markets are not feeling the buoyancy in US demand. The US presently has a good thing going, but it looks like the markets are not sure how long it will last.

Figure 1: China needed to prop up global growth

 

Source: CEIC, IMF, DBS


Download the PDF to read the full report which includes insights on India and Taiwan

Disclaimers

This information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS Bank”) and is for information only.  This publication is intended for DBS Bank and its subsidiaries or affiliates (collectively “DBS”) and clients to whom it has been delivered and may not be reproduced, transmitted or communicated to any other person without the prior written permission of DBS Bank. 

This publication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to you to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction as described, nor is it calculated to invite or permit the making of offers to the public to subscribe to or enter into any transaction for cash or other consideration and should not be viewed as such.

The information herein may be incomplete or condensed and it may not include a number of terms and provisions nor does it identify or define all or any of the risks associated to any actual transaction. Any terms, conditions and opinions contained herein may have been obtained from various sources and neither DBS nor any of their respective directors or employees (collectively the “DBS Group”) make any warranty, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness and thus assume no responsibility of it. The information herein may be subject to further revision, verification and updating and DBS Group undertakes no responsibility thereof.

All figures and amounts stated are for illustration purposes only and shall not bind DBS Group. This publication does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Before entering into any transaction to purchase any product mentioned in this publication, you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and has made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in light of your own objectives and circumstances. In particular, you should read all the relevant documentation pertaining to the product and may wish to seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser or make such independent investigations as you consider necessary or appropriate for such purposes. If you choose not to do so, you should consider carefully whether any product mentioned in this publication is suitable for you.  DBS Group does not act as an adviser and assumes no fiduciary responsibility or liability for any consequences, financial or otherwise, arising from any arrangement or entrance into any transaction in reliance on the information contained herein.  In order to build your own independent analysis of any transaction and its consequences, you should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors as you deem appropriate to ensure that any assessment you make is suitable for you in light of your own financial, accounting, tax, and legal constraints and objectives without relying in any way on DBS Group or any position which DBS Group might have expressed in this document or orally to you in the discussion.

Any information relating to past performance, or any future forecast based on past performance or other assumptions, is not necessarily a reliable indicator of future results.

If this publication has been distributed by electronic transmission, such as e-mail, then such transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of the Information, which may arise as a result of electronic transmission. If verification is required, please request for a hard-copy version.

This publication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

If you have received this communication by email, please do not distribute or copy this email. If you believe that you have received this e-mail in error, please inform the sender or contact us immediately. DBS Group reserves the right to monitor and record electronic and telephone communications made by or to its personnel for regulatory or operational purposes. The security, accuracy and timeliness of electronic communications cannot be assured.