China: Testament of policy effectiveness to date
With better-than-expected PMIs, CPIs, and credit data prints, growth rates of major indicators are expected to stabilise. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance. After all, the recent Loan Prime Rate (LPR) cut and stimulus policies will take time to unveil their impact. Gradual rate cuts will also help to stabilise the CNY.
Consumption will likely improve in the coming quarters. Retail sales rebounded from 2.5% y/y in July to 4.6% in August. Policymakers have ramped up support measures, such as raising tax allowances. The additional RMB3,000 tax allowance will translate into a 2-3% increase in spending capacity for most households. A stable labour market also bolsters consumption confidence. While youth unemployment exceeded 20%, prime working-age jobless rates remain largely comparable to pre-pandemic levels. Rising incomes have led to above-average deposit balances. When confidence returns, spending power will benefit catering, luxury goods, and recreational products.
So, how can Beijing restore consumer confidence? The aim is to resurrect the property sector. Authorities have reduced the required down payment ratio and established a floor on new mortgage rates. According to the government’s news agency, the new mortgage rule (LPR – 20bps) will effectively translate into a 80 bps interest rate cut. This could potentially save RMB309b annually for the RMB38,600b outstanding mortgages, equivalent to 0.26% of GDP.
Authorities are watching for positive spill over effects from tier 1 cities to the rest of China before considering more rate cuts. Current policies primarily benefit resilient tier 1 cities. With a higher existing downpayment ratio and mortgage rate, there is more room for cuts in tier 1 cities. If history is any guide, residential price growth in tier 2 and tier 3 cities will catch up with 60-70% of residential price growth in tier 1 cities.
Figure 1: China IP, Retail Sales, and FAI
Source: Bloomberg, DBS
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