EUR Rates: Looking beyond the easing cycle
Closer to the end of the easing cycle.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow23 Jul 2025
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EUR rates are becoming increasing convinced that the ECB easing cycle may be close to an end. Frontend EUR swaps have already converged to the 6M Euribor as market participants tentatively price in another 25bps cut by the end of the year. We agree with the market’s assessment and think that belly to longer-term EUR rates may be biased higher. The ECB has already cut rates by 200bps in this cycle and we argue that rates may already be close to, if not already below neutral. Notably, CPI readings in the Eurozone have been hovering around 2% and inflation expectations (as measured by 10Y breakeven) have stabilized at around 1.75%. Accordingly, even if the neutral real rate is as low as zero, there may not be much downside to nominal EUR rates from here on. Instead, we argue that greater government spending by the Eurozone governments may well point to a firmer economic outlook down the line even if the near-term is muddled by trade/tariff negotiations with the US. In any case, with the announcement of US trade deals with Japan and the Philippines, we think the market would be focusing on the further removal of negative economic tail risks. The steepening bias in the Bund and EUR swap curves are likely to extend over the coming few months with upward pressures arguably more acute in the belly tenors.




Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]
 



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