Amata Corp: Negatives already priced in, improvement ahead
- 2025 land sales dropped sharply amidst concerns on US tariffs while some deals were postponed to 2026
- Earnings, however, should continue to surge amidst large backlogs and improved margins
- We keep our 2026F land sales assumption unchanged at 2,000 rai, vs. management’s guidance at 2,800 rai
- Maintain BUY with a TP of THB22.80, based on a 40% discount-to-RNAV
Land sales in 2025 fell sharply by 59% y/y to 1,234 rai, down from a peak of 3,018 rai in 2024. Of the total, 1,081 rai were from Thailand and 153 rai from Vietnam. This came in well below management’s target of 2,000 rai and our estimate of 1,800 rai. The weaker-than-expected performance was mainly due to several customers postponing final investment decisions amidst concerns on US tariff, global economy, geopolitical tension, as well as delays in securing land use rights certificates from provincial authorities, among other factors.
Looking ahead, at least 400 rai of land sales are at the final stage of negotiation and are expected to be signed in 1H26. These transactions involve clients whose negotiations began last year and are now in the contract preparation phase. Of the total, around 250 rai are in Thailand – primarily to data centre and electronics customers – while the remaining 150 rai are in Vietnam (mainly food, electronics, automotive parts, and logistics players).
Land transfer dropped 14% y/y to 1,646 rai in 2025. down from the peak of 1,912 rai in 2024. The drop reflects the lower-than-expected land sales in Vietnam, and the delay in land transfer in Thailand, particularly at Chonburi and smart city projects.
Backlog is estimated at THB21bn, slightly down from THB22.5bn at end-3Q25, but remains sufficient to underpin revenue visibility over 2026–27. We see a low risk of contract cancellations, as customers have, on average, already paid around 50% of the contract value, providing a strong disincentive to walk away.
Outlook
Thailand saw record-high BOI investment applications, approvals, and certificates issued last year, underscoring strong foreign investor interest despite a softer macro backdrop. The increase in certificates issued indicates that more projects have progressed from intent to execution, a stage that typically precedes land acquisition.
This momentum is further supported by the government’s FastPass (Fast Track) program, which streamlines approvals and expedites project implementation, helping to shorten the lag between BOI certification and actual investment. Given that industrial land purchases usually occur after certificates are issued, these developments are a positive leading indicator for industrial land demand in the current year. As a key industrial estate operator in the EEC, AMATA is well positioned to benefit from this acceleration, supporting a recovery in land sales.
Management targets 2,800 rai land sales in 2026. Of the total, 1,600 rai should come from Thailand, 550 rai from Vietnam, and 600 rai from Laos (new project). We, however, keep our current land sales assumptions unchanged at 2,000 rai for this year and next.
Amata VN Plc has received Vietnamese government approval to develop Amata City Phu Tho, its fifth industrial estate in Vietnam, with a total investment value of THB5.7bn. Located in the Phu Tho province in northern Vietnam, the project will primarily target electronics and technology manufacturers seeking to expand or relocate production, benefiting from ongoing supply-chain diversification into Vietnam. The estate is designed with an eco-industrial concept aligned with Vietnam’s net-zero emissions objectives, following the memorandum of understanding signed with the Phu Tho Provincial People’s Committee in May to establish a long-term development partnership.
Covering approximately 476 hectares, Amata City Phu Tho will be developed in two phases. Phase 1, comprising 239 hectares, is expected to support investor demand through 2029, while Phase 2 will complete development of the remaining area by 2033. Strategically positioned in the “Northern Gateway” with strong transport connectivity, the project is expected to strengthen Amata’s footprint in northern Vietnam and support medium- to long-term land sales growth.
AMATA expects to commence land sales at Amata City Phu Tho in 4Q26. Nonetheless, we have not incorporated any contribution from this project into our current forecasts, pending clearer visibility on pricing, take-up rate, and the pace of infrastructure development.
Despite weak land sales, earnings should continue to reach new highs. We expect earnings to increase 14.4% to THB2.8bn in 2025 and 8.5% to THB3.1bn in 2026, thanks to its large backlog.
Recommendation
AMATA’s share price declined sharply in 2025, falling 42%, broadly tracking the significant slowdown in land sales during the year, as illustrated in the chart below. At the current share price of THB15.70, AMATA is trading close to its 2020 level, a period when land sales amounted to only 212 rai. This compares with land sales of 1,234 rai in 2025—nearly five times higher—highlighting the extent of the market’s de-rating.
Looking ahead, we expect land sales to improve in 2026 from the weak base in 2025, supported by the carryover of approximately 400 rai of delayed transactions as well as potential contributions from the new industrial estate in Laos. As land sales recover from 2026 onwards, earnings visibility should improve accordingly, which we believe will provide a catalyst for a recovery in AMATA’s share price.
We maintain our BUY recommendation with a TP of THB22.80, based on a 40% discount-to-RNAV. AMATA is currently trading at an attractive valuation, with a P/E of 5.9x, P/BV of 0.7x, and P/NAV of 0.4x while offering a decent dividend yield of 6.8%. We believe much of the negative news has already been priced into the share price, and we recommend investors accumulate the stock as land sales normalise from last year’s depressed level.
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