1. Production volume is expected at c.530kboed (+6% y/y, +4% q/q). The increase in production volume was thanks to a) higher gas nomination from PTT after GSP maintenance schedules, b) higher crude load from Middle East and Africa, and c) the full-year realisation of MTJDA Block A18 projects.
2. With the Dubai price falling to c.USD63.7/bbl (-15% y/y, -9% q/q), average selling price (ASP) is estimated at USD42.24/boe (-8% y/y, -2% q/q). On the other hand, gas selling price was at USD5.7 per mn British Thermal Units (mmbtu), -3% y/y and -2% q/q, as there is a time lag of up to 12 months for price adjustments.
   
   
3. Unit cost was guided at USD30/boe (+2% y/y, -5% q/q). A slight decrease in unit cost q/q was due to normalising SG&A and depreciation expenses.
   
   
4. Extraordinary items in 4Q25F included a forex gain of THB160mn and a net hedging gain of THB960mn on financial instruments due to the Brent forward curve downtrending.

Limited upside to oil price after the US attack on Venezuela. We deem limited upside risk to crude prices. However, a small spike in prices due to risk sentiment is possible. Nevertheless, we expect no large, sustained breakout, absent of wider Middle East or major supply disruptions. Over the longer term, supply fundamentals (OPEC/OPEC+ policy, US shale output, global demand) should dominate over Venezuelan disruption barring a broader geopolitical escalation.

Despite boasting the world’s largest crude reserve of c.300mn barrels, Venezuela’s current oil production (~1 mbpd) is relatively small (~0.8-1.1% of global output) because recent sanctions and under-investment have already constrained exports. The recent US blockade and seizures have reduced Venezuelan exports further, but so far, oil infrastructure has remained free of significant damage. As a result, we expect a very short-term upside potential to oil prices.

Because the global oil market is well-supplied with inventories and production elsewhere, the actual structural impact on crude prices is expected to be muted. Moreover, the US has signalled intent to tap into Venezuelan oil reserves or bring US companies into production – which over time could augment supply rather than constrain it. Thus, we deem potential downside risk to oil prices in the long run.

Maintain BUY with an FY26F TP of THB169, based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 11.69% and a terminal growth rate of 1%. Despite weaker oil prices, we still like PTTEP given its minimal exposure to regulatory risks, even with government efforts to reduce domestic energy prices through measures such as i) single pooled gas price, ii) retail oil price caps (both diesel and gasoline), and iii) a potential electricity tariff cut. On the other hand, PTTEP’s business outlook remains intact, supported by a resilient volume growth of 3.5% CAGR during 2026-2030F and stable selling gas prices.

Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (THBmn)

 Source: DBSVTH, Company

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