AIA Group - A hidden GenAI gem
- The substantial value creation potential of life insurers utilising GenAI, particularly given their possession of massive amounts of proprietary health data, should not be overlooked
- AIA is positioned as a frontrunner in the GenAI race, given its increased digitalisation and AI-enabled processing, enhanced digital lead generation/conversion, and operating efficiencies
- Amplify Health, a healthtech company aiming to become Asia’s leading trusted health data repository, is expected to help strengthen AIA’s health value proposition and future return
- Since the launch of DeepSeek, the HSI and AI plays were up 14% and 31%, respectively, outperforming AIA, which was up only 6%. This presents opportunities for sector rotation. Reiterate BUY
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Life insurers’ value should not be overlooked in GenAI evolution.
The debut of DeepSeek is expected to dramatically speed up the democratisation of Generative AI given its significant cost efficiency and open-source architecture, compared to Open AI. In a world on the brink of being transformed by Generative AI, two key elements are critical: a) Proprietary data to train models and b) a robust distribution and ecosystem for the insights produced by these models.
In such a context, considering the future scope of the health industry, we believe the potential value creation from life insurance companies should not be overlooked, given they possess massive amounts of proprietary health data, collected from policyholders, partnered clinics and healthcare service providers, and insurers’ health management programmes – namely, “Vitality” in the case of AIA.
AIA is positioned as a frontrunner among peers in GenAI race. We’ve analysed major regional insurance companies, including AIA, Ping An (2318 HK), and Manulife (945 HK), which we believe spearhead digital transformation in the industry, to identity the frontrunner in the Gen AI race. From an insurance business perspective, the financial benefit to insurers adopting AI include: 1) Improvement in agent, bancassurance, and distribution partners’ productivity with more digital leads generated and more customised, precision marketing; 2) improvement in operating efficiencies, expense savings, claim efficiencies, and risk management; 3) enhanced client engagement and substantial improvement in client experience and brand loyalty; and 4) stronger health value proposition by optimising clients’ health journey and providing better, integrated health solutions to clients by leveraging the insights generated through the utilisation of proprietary health data and health expertise.
Ultimately, this will transform into a) faster VONB growth, b) higher operating profit growth, and c) stronger free cashflow generation.
Ahead of peers’ Technology, Digital, Anaglyptic (TDA) progress
Based on data from individual insurers’ disclosures (figure 1), although not standardised, we analyse insurers’ TDA transformation progress, which serves as a foundation for future GenAI adoption. The following matrix is used for this analysis: a) Progress in digital end-to-end submission, b) progress in cloud adoption, c) expense/claim efficiencies and benefit delivered based on TDA adoption, d) productivity enhancement from digital leads generated, e) customer satisfaction and net promoter score (NPS), and f) number of AI models deployed.
- Digital processing: AIA has achieved a 95% to 99% level of digital submissions, ranging from product purchases to servicing, with 85% in straight-through processing achieved as of FY23. Its progress is moderately ahead of its regional insurer peers. Ping An was also found to have started its digitalisation progress earlier than peers, achieving a level of 99% for digital submissions as of 1H20.
- Cloud adoption: AIA has achieved 90% of cloud adoption as of FY23. Ping An also started its cloud adoption early, with 95%+ cloud adoption achieved.
- Expense efficiencies: AIA achieved more than USD150mn in expense efficiencies via its TDA efforts in FY23, or 3.3% of profit before tax (PBT). AIA also indicated it achieved a 32% cost reduction per transaction unit over the three years engaged in the TDA transformation during 2020-2023. Manulife indicated it generated CAD185mn in benefits from its digital and client-centric adoption efforts in FY23, which is around 2.9% of PBT.
- Digital leads and productivity generated: AIA generated 15mn digital leads in FY23, among which 4.1mn were from AIA China, where it is able to convert 6% of these leads into sales. Annual new premiums (ANPs) generated from these leads reached USD1.2bn, or 15.7% of overall ANP in FY23. Its pace of productivity enhancement seems to be ahead of its regional peers. On the other hand, Ping An also seems to have achieved good progress in productivity enhancement and usage of AI service representatives.
- Customer satisfaction: AIA achieved a 4.5+ rating on its mobile app across its six key markets, some of which scored a high 4.7. The insurer also leads in terms of the Net Promotor Score (NPS) across seven of its major markets, ahead of its peers. Note that Manulife also achieved a good mobile app rating, with a noticeable improvement in its NPS over the years.
- AI models deployed: AIA indicated it delivered more than 330 analytic and AI solutions, ranging from AI recruitment & training, policy pre-approvals, e-KYC (know your customer), fraud detection, anti-money laundering (AML) screening, claims adjudication, and policy underwriting to personalised customer offers, plus others. Manulife also indicated it aims to deploy 24 GenAI use cases in FY24.
Overall, our comparison suggests that AIA outpaces its peers, particularly in productivity enhancement and expense efficiencies. Meanwhile, Ping An also seems to have initiated its digital transformation earlier than its peers.
Value creation from GenAI
In the GenAI era, insurers are already leveraging technology for summarisation, insights and suggestions, content creation, and automation across various operational aspects and the value chain. In particular, AIA as well as Manulife demonstrated the use of GenAI in helping agents in their sales process, including a) to attract prospective clients – by providing more targeted, personalised marketing content and outreach; b) in sales activities – by assisting agents on sales pitches, acting as a real-time assistant during customer interactions, and suggesting post-meeting action plans; and c) in servicing – by helping with customer case summarisation, script suggestion, and enhancing conversational intelligence. All in all, this is expected to boost agent productivity, increase personalised engagement with customers, increase lead generation and conversion, enhance operating efficiency, and improve customer experience (figure 3).
Amplify Health to strengthen AIA’s health proposition and value. AIA established Amplify Health, a JV entity 90%-owned with Discovery Group (owns 10%), in February 2022. Amplify Health is a healthtech and analytics company that provides payors (policyholders) and healthcare providers with a technology platform incorporating data science and digital health solutions to improve outcomes for individuals and the sustainability of healthcare systems. With data at the heart of the healthcare system transformation, Amplify Health aims to become a trusted custodian of Asia’s largest repository of health data, improving healthcare access and delivery through technological solutions powered by advanced analytics and predictive insights. To strengthen its edge in providing integrated health technology solutions and associated IP, Amplify Health acquired AiDA Technologies in January 2023, a leading provider of artificial intelligence (AI) solutions.
Proprietary health data is the key. Amplify Health currently offers technology solutions including Payment Integrity, Value Optimisation, Digital Engagement, Health Operations, Product Design and Advisory, and Precision Insights solutions. All are built using proprietary health data sourced from the entire healthcare supply chain (figure 3), offering significant value to life insurance companies in strengthening their health propositions to customers. For example, the Digital Engagement solution offers Vitality and Chronic Disease Management tools to help identify an individual’s health risk and incentivises behaviour changes toward a healthier life; and supports those living with diabetes, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol to focus on diet and nutrition and assists in managing a better lifestyle. As such, the insurance companies utilising this solution would not just sell health policies, but rather assist customers to live healthier, which we believe is a very strong value proposition. Despite the limited financial contributions from these initiatives in the near term, we believe the potential for value generation and financial contribution is substantial in the medium term, and differentiates these companies from their like-for-like peers.
Sector rotation to laggers likely, given the strong rally towards AI plays. Since the launch of DeepSeek on 28 January 2025, major AI plays listed on the HKEX and HSI, on average, were up 31% and 14%, respectively, compared to major regional insurers including AIA and Ping An, which were up 6% and 7% (figure 2). In the GenAI era, we believe the value of digitally advanced life insurance companies with strong AI initiatives should not be overlooked, particularly given they possess proprietary health data. Note that AI healthcare is an area NVIDIA is actively exploring, and the share price of Tempus AI (TEM US), a US-based healthcare AI focusing on the analytics of diagnostic data, was up 36% during the same period and outperformed other US AI hardware plays (YTD up 106%).
Enhancing shareholders’ value continues to be the key focus
On 12 February 2025, AIA announced that it completed the USD12bn share buyback programme that commenced in March 2022. During its 1H24 result, the insurer also committed to the following capital management policy:
- Payout ratio target of 75% of annual net free surplus: This comprises a) a prudent and progressive dividend payout and b) share buybacks to balance the 75% payout ratio target, which will be announced at its annual results
- Regular review and return of excess capital: For example, the USD12bn buyback programme that commenced in March 2022
With AIA’s strong free surplus generation and disciplined spending (organic and inorganic) from 2020 to 2023, its annual dividends consistently lagged the 75% paid out from its net free surplus, with the amount reaching USD656mn to USD1.1bn (figure 5). In order to meet its committed payout ratio target of 75% of its annual net free surplus, and in light of its prudent and progressive dividend policy, AIA may announce a ~ US$1bn share buyback, in our view. As the insurer has already completed the USD12bn buyback programme, we believe it’s unlikely that AIA would announce another round of share buyback with a similar value in the near term. We should gain more clarity from the management during their FY24 results announcement on 14 March 2025. Overall, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for AIA and believe the insurer’s potential value enhancement under GenAI should not be overlooked.
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