Singapore Telecom: HoldCo discount at 34% is too high to sustain

Sachin Mittal20 Feb 2025
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  • 3Q25 earnings in line, raised FY25F core EBIT guidance

     



    3QFY25 core operating profit breakdown. Group underlying profit was driven by Optus, Bharti, and AIS

     

    EBIT (SGDmn)

    3Q24

    4Q24

    1Q25

    2Q25

    3Q25

    y/y %

    q/q %

    Optus

    64

    66

    87

    110

    91

    42%

    -17%

    Singtel Singapore

    216

    184

    230

    209

    216

    0%

    3%

    Digital InfraCo

    18

    15

    28

    11

    9

    -50%

    -18%

    NCS

    55

    36

    65

    65

    63

    15%

    -3%

    Trustwave

    -

    -

    -

    -

    -

      

    Amobee

    -

    -

    -

    -

    -

      

    Corporate

    (44)

    (66)

    (28)

    (39)

    (38)

    -14%

    -3%

    Intercompany eliminations

    15

    15

    9

    nm

    2

    -87%

    na

            

    Group core EBIT

    324

    249

    382

    356

    344

    6%

    -3%

    Regional Associate pre-tax

    499

    644

    565

    604

    655

    31%

    8%

    Underlying net profit

    559

    581

    603

    587

    680

    22%

    16%

    Source: Company, DBS

     


    3QFY25 underlying earnings of SGD680mn (up 22% y/y, up 16% q/q), was in line with consensus estimate of SGD679mn. Core EBIT (which excludes associates) improved to SGD344mn (+6% y/y, -3% q/q), in line with consensus estimate of SGD345mn. Optus is benefiting from cost-cutting measures implemented in 2HFY24 (~10% staff reduction) and tariff hikes introduced in May 2024, seen in the 3% y/y rise in revenue to SGD1,856mn (up 4.1% y/y in constant currency) while its EBIT rose 43% y/y to SGD91mn (up 45% y/y in constant currency). The company raised its FY25F core EBIT growth guidance to high teens to low 20s (vs. low double digit earlier), given the 20% growth achieved in 9M25. This exceeds consensus estimate of 14% growth in FY25F. Regional associate pre-tax profit of SGD655mn (+31% y/y, +8% q/q) was slightly above the consensus estimate of SGD640mn, led by Bharti & AIS.

    We expect ST’s HoldCo discount to narrow to 10%-15% with improving core EBIT. ST’s HoldCo discount has narrowed to 34% in Feb 2025 from a high of 53% in Nov 2023, comparable to its five-year average of 34%.  This reduction is driven by growth in core operating profit from Singapore and Australia, which are expected to generate the majority of the free cash flow (FCF) for dividend payouts. The HoldCo discount was below 10% before FY18, which, in our view, can be achieved again if FCF of the core business improves sharply.

     

    We have revised our core EBIT and underlying earnings for FY25F by 8% and 3% following the upgraded management guidance. ST has raised its FY25F core EBIT growth forecast to the high teens to low twenties, up from the low double digits previously, following 20% growth in 9M25. This revision surpasses the consensus estimate of 14% growth for FY25F. Our revised core EBIT estimate for FY25F stands at SGD1,346mn, reflecting 17% y/y growth from FY24, compared to our earlier projection of 8%. Additionally, we have updated our underlying earnings estimate for FY25F to SGD2,503mn, implying 11% y/y growth from FY24, up from our previous expectation of 8%.


    Maintain BUY with a higher TP of SGD3.93 (prev: SGD3.82). The higher TP stems from an 8% and 3% rise in our core EBIT and underlying earnings estimates, respectively, for FY25F. After applying a 20% HoldCo discount, Singtel’s regional associates are valued at SGD3.17 (prev: SGD3.12). Our fair value for Singtel’s core business in Singapore and Australia is SGD0.76 per share (prev: SGD0.70). Bharti comprises 53% of our SOTP valuation. Singtel is a cheap proxy to Bharti, especially with its core operating profit resuming growth, driven by NCS, data centre, and cost-cutting measures.







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