• 4Q25 earnings of THB1,885mn (-1% y/y, -7% q/q), slightly missing our estimates by 4% due to lower-than-expected revenue
• 2H25 dividend announced at THB9/share (4.7% yield)
• 1Q26F earnings to grow y/y on continued strong demand from the Middle East market but decline q/q due to Ramadan
• Maintain BUY with a DCF-based TP of THB210.00.

Q25 earnings slightly missed expectations. BH reported 4Q25 earnings of THB1,885mn (-1% y/y, -7% q/q), slightly missing our and market estimates by 4% and 3%, respectively. The deviation was due to lower-than-expected revenue, as Thai patient revenue declined 6% y/y. The marginal y/y decline was mainly due to lower tax benefits of THB10mn (vs. THB130mn in 4Q24), while the q/q drop was driven by a lower EBITDA margin.

Hospital revenue grew only 1% y/y and flat q/q. BH posted revenue of THB6.5bn (+1% y/y, flat q/q), lower than management guidance at 3-5%.

1. Revenue from international patients was THB4.4bn (+5% y/y, +1% q/q), driven by growth in patients from the Middle East (+16.6% y/y), Myanmar (+25.5% y/y), and USA (+15.7% y/y).
2. Revenue from domestic patients was THB2.1bn (-6% y/y, flat q/q), the negative growth y/y is higher compared to 3Q25 at -2% impacted by the economic slowdown.

As a result, 4Q25 revenue comprised 32.9% from Thai patients and 67.1% from international patients (vs. 35.5% from Thai patients and 64.5% from international patients in 4Q24).

EBITDA margin came in at 39.1% (vs. 37.0% in 4Q24 and 42.1% in 3Q25). The y/y improvement was driven by higher revenue intensity from Middle East patients and better cost controls. The q/q decline was due to a higher contribution from health check-up services, which carry lower margins, as well as a lower foreign patient mix.

The effective tax rate was higher at 18.2% (vs. 12.8% in 4Q24, but slightly lower than 18.5% in 3Q25). The y/y increase was due to lower tax benefits related to community and social contribution incentives. The tax deduction rate under the investment promotion scheme was reduced from 200% in 2024 to 120% in 2025, resulting in a decline in tax privileges compared to the previous year.

2H25 Dividend Announced at THB9/share (4.7% Yield). The company announced a 2H25 dividend of THB9/share, comprising a normal dividend of THB3/share and a special dividend of THB6/share, implying a dividend yield of 4.7%. Total full-year DPS came in at THB11/share, implying a yield of 5.8%.

Outlook

Expect 1Q26F earnings to grow y/y, but drop q/q. On a y/y basis, BH is expected to report earnings growths. Despite a high base from Cambodian patients, BH should benefit from Middle East market growth, supported by a low base in 1Q25. On a q/q basis, hospital with higher international exposure is likely to face pressure from Ramadan, which runs from 16 Feb -18 Mar 2026 (vs. 1-30 Mar last year).

Maintain BUY with a TP of THB210.00. We view the special dividend as a positive surprise and reiterate our BUY call with a TP of THB210.00, based on DCF valuation (WACC assumption: 7.5%). We expect a recovery ahead, driven by the return of Myanmar patients, higher patient volumes from the Middle East, and upside from the Kuwait market. Valuation remains attractive, with the stock trading at c.1.0SD below its five-year average P/E of 18.5x, while ROE is projected at 23.2% in FY26.