Central Plaza Hotel: Growth to be accelerated in 2026F
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4Q25F core profit is expected to come in at THB784mn (+31% y/y), ahead of both our estimate and consensus
Hotel RevPAR remained firm across key hubs, supporting EBITDA margin expansion, while negative food SSSG was offset by cost controls and higher associate income
Management guided a more positive 2026 outlook for both the hotel and food businesses, with core earnings growth expected to accelerate to 16%
Raised earnings forecasts and DCF-based TP to THB45.0; maintain BUY
Earnings review
Positive surprise in 4Q25 results. CENTEL reported 4Q25 core profit of THB784mn (+31% y/y and +31% q/q). The results were 20% above our estimates and 13% above consensus. The key deviation from our forecast was mainly due to better-than-expected EBITDA margins and lower-than-expected finance costs. The strong q/q recovery was largely supported by improved seasonality, lower losses from new Maldives hotels, stronger associate income contributions from food JVs, and lower finance costs.
On a y/y basis, performance was driven by solid hotel RevPAR growth across key hubs and EBITDA margin expansion through a better revenue mix and cost management efforts — despite higher expenses. We note that the company recorded several extra items, including a THB64mn forex gain related to Japanese loan translation and reversals of impairment provisions at its subsidiary. Net-net, 4Q25 reported profit came in at THB975mn (+46% y/y and +508% q/q).
Robust RevPAR growth in 4Q25. Overall RevPAR growth (excluding Dubai) was 15%, improving further from 5% in 3Q25. The stronger performance was supported by improvements across key hubs, including Thailand, the Maldives, and Japan, despite negative currency translation impacts from THB appreciation during the period.
Bangkok properties showed a solid recovery despite weak tourist numbers. Meanwhile, upcountry assets in Thailand continued to perform well, with RevPAR growth of 7% (mostly driven by a spike in AOR), supported by the completion of major renovation projects such as Centara Grand Mirage Pattaya and Centara Karon. However, upcountry ARR was impacted by the renovation of Centara Grand Hua Hin (from April 2025) and Centara Grand Krabi (from May 2025), which typically command higher ARR than the Thailand average. Overall, Thailand RevPAR remained positive at 6%.
Hotels in Japan posted healthy RevPAR growth of 7% in 4Q25, largely driven by higher AOR, while ADR was flattish after translation impact (+7% y/y in local currency terms). The Maldives hotels showed a strong turnaround in RevPAR, with 49% growth off a low base following the opening of Centara Mirage Lagoon Maldives (November 2024) and Centara Grand Lagoon Maldives (April 2025). For existing hotels, in addition to overall tourism growth, the company introduced more price promotions, enabling it to lift AOR during the quarter.
Additionally, CENTEL’s Dubai assets (accounted for via associate income) delivered 3% RevPAR growth, as lower ARR was offset by higher AOR. Dubai performance was also weighed down by a stronger THB. Excluding currency impact, RevPAR growth would have been approximately 8% in 4Q25. Overall, hotel revenue grew 15% y/y, broadly in line with group RevPAR growth of 15%.
Food revenue trend improved. Total food revenue declined 3% y/y, in line with SSSG of -3%. The softer SSSG was mainly impacted by the Co-payment Scheme, which encouraged consumers to spend at street food vendors or mom-and-pop shops rather than chain restaurants. However, including JV revenue, TSSG grew 4% y/y, primarily driven by outlet expansion.
EBITDA margin improving from strong hotel operations and cost-saving efforts. In 4Q25, overall EBITDA margin expanded by 0.6ppt y/y, primarily driven by strong RevPAR growth (from both higher AOR and ADR) and management’s cost-control initiatives. Associate income slightly decreased y/y due to a high base in 4Q24, when the company recorded additional income related to accounting treatment adjustments.
Core net margin widened y/y. CENTEL’s finance costs declined 2% y/y in 4Q25, despite full recognition of additional interest expenses from the two new Maldives hotels, amid a declining interest rate environment. Net-net, 4Q25 core net margin came in at 12.4% (+2.5ppt y/y).
Outlook
Hotel performance in January boosted by Maldives assets. Based on management guidance, RevPAR in January 2026 contracted by 5% in Thailand and 23% in Japan due to a high base effect from Chinese New Year on 29 January 2025 (vs. 17 February in 2026). Nevertheless, Maldives assets continued to show strong RevPAR recovery of 57% off a low base from last year’s new hotel openings, resulting in total RevPAR growth remaining positive at 6% in January. We expect stronger RevPAR recovery in Thailand and Japan in February due to the Chinese New Year shift, while Maldives RevPAR should remain robust.
For the food business, SSSG returned to positive territory at 3% in January 2026, partly supported by improved sentiment from a pre-election consumption rally. We also expect further growth in associate income from food JVs, driven by continued expansion and a full-quarter contribution from Miracle Planet (operator of Lucky Suki and Lucky BBQ), following the acquisition of a 40% stake in December 2025.
More positive 2026 guidance. During the analyst meeting, management guided for robust revenue growth (including JVs) of 14%–15%, mainly driven by organic growth. Among key hubs, the Maldives is expected to deliver the strongest growth, while Thailand should benefit from tourism recovery. Japan assets, however, may see limited growth amid China–Japan political tensions.
Overall occupancy is expected at 75%–78% (+3–6ppt y/y), while RevPAR is guided at THB4,600–4,800 (+7%–12% y/y). We currently assume 7% RevPAR growth, at the lower end of management guidance.
Food revenue including JVs is expected to grow 14% y/y (excluding JVs: +9% y/y). Overall SSSG (including JVs) is targeted at 3%–5%. We take a more conservative stance, assuming SSSG of 0.5% (excluding JVs) and food revenue growth of 2% y/y (excluding JVs), given intense competition. Nevertheless, we remain positive on the food JV business, which should further support associate income this year.
High capex cycle to continue. The company will remain in a high capex cycle (THB5–7bn) over the next few years due to renovations, expansion of existing hotels, and M&As. Its firm balance sheet (net gearing of 0.7x at end-2025) is expected to provide sufficient support.
Recommendation
Maintain BUY with a higher TP of THB45.0 vs THB38.50. We have raised our earnings forecasts by 9%/10% for FY26F/FY27F, mainly reflecting stronger-than-expected 2025 results, improved EBITDA margin assumptions, and higher associate income. We have also increased our terminal growth rate from 1% to 2%; consequently, our DCF-based TP rises to THB45.0 (WACC of 8.2%). Given the upside potential and strong earnings growth prospects this year, we maintain our BUY recommendation.
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (THB, mn) | |||||
FY Dec | 4Q2024 | 3Q2025 | 4Q2025 | % chg y/y | % chg q/q |
Revenue | 6,006 | 5,622 | 6,310 | 5.1 | 12.2 |
Cost of Goods Sold | (2,652.0) | (2,246.0) | (2,324.0) | (12.4) | 3.5 |
Gross Profit | 3,353.9 | 3,375.8 | 3,986.1 | 18.8 | 18.1 |
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc | (2,830.1) | (3,026.5) | (3,184.5) | 12.5 | 5.2 |
Operating Profit | 523.8 | 349.3 | 801.7 | 53.1 | 129.5 |
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc | 326.6 | 162.6 | 238.7 | (26.9) | 46.8 |
Associates & JV Inc | 121.3 | 71.5 | 106.0 | (12.6) | 48.3 |
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc | (268.3) | (298.7) | (263.9) | (1.6) | (11.7) |
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) | 69.0 | (31.0) | 191.0 | 176.8 | (716.1) |
Pre-tax Profit | 772.5 | 253.7 | 1,073.5 | 39.0 | 323.1 |
Tax | (137.3) | (111.5) | (98.6) | (28.2) | (11.6) |
Minority Interest | 30.8 | 18.1 | 0.2 | (99.4) | (98.9) |
Net Profit | 666.0 | 160.4 | 975.1 | 46.4 | 507.9 |
Net profit bef Except. | 597.0 | 191.4 | 784.1 | 31.3 | 309.7 |
EBITDA | 1,779.4 | 1,418.4 | 2,064.4 | 16.0 | 45.5 |
Gross Margins (%) | 55.8 | 60.0 | 63.2 |
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Opg Profit Margins (%) | 16.2 | 10.4 | 18.2 |
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Net Profit Margins (%) Source: DBSVTH | 11.1 | 2.9 | 15.5 |
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