Genting Singapore Ltd: Upgrade to BUY on cash reserve value-unlock opportunities
Related Stories
- Genting Singapore: Reset into a year of market share recovery25 Feb 2026
- Genting Singapore Ltd: Genting Malaysia to remain listed and on track to secure New York casino license29 Jan 2026
- Genting Singapore Ltd: Genting Malaysia to remain listed and on track to secure New York casino license02 Dec 2025
- Upgrade to BUY with TP of SGD0.90 on higher valuation peg of 7.3x EV/EBITDA, 5-year avg, supported by near-term value unlock opportunities
- Given net cash position of >SGD0.27/share and majority shareholder, Genting Berhad in tight liquidity position, equal access offer at SGD0.90 could prove to be an effective near-term value unlock option
- Raise FY26F EBITDA by 1% supported by more optimistic gaming landscape, slightly offset by lower room rates given The Laurus’ full facilities being fully operational only in 2Q26
- Longer term, we believe operational improvement is required to sustain higher valuation, of which we noted early signs with renovations largely completed
What happened in 2025?
Genting Singapore (GENS) delivered flattish total return in 2025, underperforming the STI, which delivered 29% total return. We believe there were 3 key drivers behind the underperformance: (1) continued market share attrition to MBS partially due to renovation works, (2) MSCI removal overhang, and (3) lack of a defined capital return plan.
What has changed in the last few months?
We observed 3 major changes in the few months that can be categorised under (i) financial, (ii) operational, and (iii) industry specific.
Financial
MSCI removal overhang has passed. GENS’ prolonged underperformance had pushed its free-float market capitalisation toward potential removal, as flagged in our previous downgrade note. With its removal from the MSCI Singapore Index confirmed and effective 24 Nov 2025, we expect selling pressure to ease. This is consistent with the decline in short volume (refer to Chart 1).
Chart 1: Short selling pressure has eased post MSCI removal in Nov 25
Source: Bloomberg, DBS
Operational
New leadership hires suggest a serious review of operations. The company has made several senior appointments, which we believe point to a renewed focus on improving casino and attractions performance.
Si Chen – Chief Operating Officer (COO), RWS
Appointed in Nov 2025, Si Chen was previously CEO of Inspire Entertainment, a foreigners-only integrated resort in Incheon. During his tenure, the business achieved EBITDA breakeven within its first year of operations. With his track record and network, we believe he is well positioned to bring in major events and VIP customers, including from markets such as Russia, Taiwan, and Japan.
Lena Lee – Executive Vice President (EVP), Attractions & Destination Experience, RWS
Appointed in Jan 2026, Lena Lee previously worked at Universal Studios Japan (Osaka), the most visited Universal theme park in the world. We believe she can inject new energy into Universal Studios Singapore, which needs a refresh to regain attendance momentum.
Industry
Unlikely to see a repeat of 4Q24 significant gaming volume decline in 4Q25. Consensus expectations remain that GENS will continue to cede market share. However, Marina Bay Sands’ strong growth suggests a supportive industry backdrop, and reduces concerns of a repeat of the 4Q24 decline. In 4Q24, MBS’ overall gaming volume rose about 9%, versus 31% in 4Q25. We have adjusted our assumptions to reflect a 4ppt loss in VIP market share (from 39% in 4Q24 to 35% in 4Q25) and 2ppt loss in overall and mass gaming market share (refer to Table 1 and Chart 2). Even so, we expect VIP rolling volume to remain well placed to grow by 36% and drive overall gaming revenue, supported by the stronger overall industry environment.
Table 1: Overview of Singapore gaming landscape
Source: LVS’ financials, GENS commentaries, DBS estimates (RWS stats for 4Q25 are estimates, whereas data for prior periods are rough estimates based on commentaries from the company)
Chart 2: Overview of RWS’ overall gaming market share gain/(loss)
Source: LVS’ financials, GENS commentaries, DBS estimates
What’s our outlook for 2026?
Raise FY26F adjusted EBITDA by 1.5%, driven by a more constructive gaming environment and partly offset by weaker room rates. We were initially cautious amid global uncertainties, but Las Vegas Sands’ positive outlook for Marina Bay Sands gives us greater confidence that gaming volume momentum can extend into 2026. With most recently renovated assets now coming online and strong Chinese New Year activations (refer to images below), we believe the company is well positioned to defend, and potentially expand, market share in 1Q26. This should be further supported by the doubling of China flights ahead of the CNY travel surge, which we believe could translate into a meaningful uplift in gaming volumes at RWS. Accordingly, we pencilled in higher gaming contribution, partially offset by softer room profitability, as The Laurus’ basic suite rates have fallen to as low as SGD630/night, from above SGD1,000/night in Oct 2025.
What needs to be done for stock to see a re-rating?
We believe the company is well positioned to deliver outsized returns through a two-pronged strategy: (i) long-term execution of the RWS repositioning, and (ii) a near-term capital return plan. In this report, we focus on the latter summarised in Table 2, with a detailed update on the RWS repositioning to follow in a subsequent report.
Table 2: Overview of various value unlock corporate actions
Corporate Action | Mechanism | Stakeholders | |
Genting Berhad | Minority | ||
| Equal Access Offer (EAO) | Offer to purchase 10% of shares at SGD0.90 (20% above 5-day average, est SGD1.1bn) | Pros: Immediate access to SGD570mn for cashflow needs Cons: Might lose 50% majority | Pros: Set valuation floor, EPS accretive
|
| Share buyback | Purchase on market at prevailing share price | Pros: Increase ownership %, reduced future cash leakage to minorities Cons: No cash inflow | Pros: Provide downside share price support, EPS accretive Cons: Limited re-valuation upside |
| Outsized special dividend | Distribute excess capital in one-off lump sum (~SGD1.1bn) | Pros: Simple, immediate access to >SGD500mn cash Cons: EPS dilutive given lower interest income | Pros: Simple, secure one-off high yield (~12% at SGD0.75) Cons: EPS dilutive given lower interest income |
| Multi-year capital return dividend | Distribute excess capital over multiple years | Pros: Steady higher dividend payout Cons: Low cash quantum | Pros: Steady higher dividend payout, higher interest amongst income investors |
| Progressive dividend policy | Step up dividend annually | Pros: Improved yield Cons: Low cash quantum | Pros: Improved yield, potential valuation re-rating |
Source: DBS
Why we believe a major cash distribution could happen?
We believe management would be keen to opt for an equal access offer or special dividend for three key reasons: (i) falling rate environment, (ii) RWS capex requirements could be largely supported by operating cash flow, and (iii) majority shareholder’s immediate liquidity needs.
Falling rates reduce the value of holding excess cash. With interest rates trending lower, retaining a large cash balance offers diminishing earnings support. Interest income was a meaningful contributor in FY23–FY24, accounting for roughly 18–19% of profit before tax, with an effective yield of about 3.9%. For FY25, we estimate the effective yield will fall to around 2.6%, as 1H25 interest income declined 31% y/y even though average cash only fell 5.1%. If the lower-rate environment persists, the effective yield could drift toward 2%, making cash hoarding a less efficient capital allocation choice.
Capex needs are manageable versus baseline cash generation. We expect elevated capex over 2026–2030 totalling about SGD4.7bn, but we believe this can be largely supported by operating cash flow. Using a baseline operating cash flow assumption of ~SGD1bn p.a. (10% below 5-year pre-COVID average) and 5% annual step-up dividend, we estimate the company will require modest debt borrowings of up to SGD1bn for liquidity buffer purposes (Refer to Table 3 and Table 4 for scenario analysis). At net debt position of at most SGD1bn, key net debt to EBITDA metric will be at a very comfortable <1x level, which will translate to low interest cost.
Table 3: Scenario 1 with distribution of one-off special dividend and 5% annual dividend step-up
| in SGD mn | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
| Beginning net cash | 3,300 | 2,193 | 1,661 | 1,103 | 666 |
| Op cash flow | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Special Div | (1,100) |
|
|
|
|
| Capex | (600) | (1,100) | (1,100) | (950) | (950) |
| Div | (507) | (532) | (559) | (587) | (616) |
| Ending net cash | 2,093 | 1,461 | 803 | 266 | (300) |
Source: DBS estimates (Note: Beginning cash is based on 1H25 cash holdings)
Table 4: Scenario 2 with distribution via EAO and 5% annual dividend step-up
| in SGD mn | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
| Beginning net cash | 3,300 | 2,093 | 1,514 | 912 | 434 |
| Op cash flow | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| Special Div | (1,100) |
|
|
|
|
| Capex | (600) | (1,100) | (1,100) | (950) | (950) |
| Div | (507) | (479) | (503) | (528) | (554) |
| Ending net cash | 2,093 | 1,514 | 912 | 434 | (71) |
Source: DBS estimates (Note: Beginning cash is based on 1H25 cash holdings; dividend estimates assume tendered shares are cancelled)
Majority owner has meaningful funding requirements. Genting Berhad (52% shareholder) faces elevated liquidity needs, given (i) its privatisation efforts at Genting Malaysia (about ~SGD1bn spent to acquire an additional ~23% stake, and potentially another ~SGD1bn to acquire the remaining ~25%), and (ii) funding for the Genting New York expansion (about ~SGD770mn upfront licence fee and ~SGD1bn p.a. of capex). In addition, the group’s subsidiaries have ~SGD3.6bn of debt due in 2027. While refinancing is feasible, it is likely to come at a higher cost given the group’s weaker credit profile.
Overall, we believe it would be sensible to distribute at least SGD1bn of excess cash, via either an EAO or a special dividend. We believe an EAO could be a more optimal option as it improves the EPS profile and establishes a valuation benchmark. Beyond a one-off return, we believe a commitment to a progressive dividend policy is well supported by the company’s operating profile and would provide additional valuation support from a yield perspective (refer to Table 5).
Table 5: Dividend projection overview with 5% annual dividend step-up
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
| Div per share (Scts) | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Div yield at assumed share price of SGD0.75 (%) | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% |
Source: DBS estimates
How do we value this company?
Upgrade to BUY with a TP of SGD0.90. Our TP is based on 7.3x forward EV/ FY26F EBITDA, in line with the company’s 5-year average (refer to Chart 3). We see scope for re-rating as the company unlocks value from its substantial cash reserves. Downside risk also appears largely cushioned by an attractive dividend yield of around 5.3% at SGD0.75.
Chart 3: GENS currently trades at close to -1S.D. of its 5-year average fwd EV/EBITDA
Source: CapitalIq, DBS (as of 10 Feb 25)
Re-rating also supported by improved ROC metric, which has high correlation to valuation. Due to its high net cash position, GENS delivers relatively mediocre ROC at 5.5% versus peers. By undergoing capital return, the company will significantly lower its equity base and we estimate that it could lift its ROC by ~70bps. Coupled with operational improvement, it could lift ROC to 7%, which correlates to 7.5x fwd EV/EBITDA valuation (refers to Chart 4).
Chart 4: Large cap casino stocks’ valuations demonstrates strong correlation to its ROC
Source: Bloomberg, DBS (as of 11 Feb 25) (Note: Included only casino names with market cap >USD5bn, MGM China excluded given outlier ROC metric of 25%)
Access more at DBS Insights Direct
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any information or sources or taken into account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the research. Accordingly, we do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set out in this report. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group, may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.
Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report.
This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere.
There is no planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer.
The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:
(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and
(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments stated therein.
Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets.
Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report.
DBSVUSA, a US-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, has not participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months and does not engage in market-making.
General | This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. |
Australia | This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”) or DBSV HK. DBS Bank Ltd holds Australian Financial Services Licence no. 475946. DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVS and DBSV HK are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS and DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, and DBSV HK is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission under the laws of Hong Kong, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA. |
Hong Kong | This report has been prepared by a personnel of DBS Bank, who is not licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to carry on the regulated activity of advising on securities in Hong Kong pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). This report is being distributed in Hong Kong and is attributable to DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (''DBS HK''), a registered institution registered with the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to carry on the regulated activity of advising on securities pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch is a limited liability company incorporated in Singapore. For any query regarding the materials herein, please contact Dennis Lam (Reg No. AH8290) at [email protected] |
Indonesia | This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia. |
Malaysia | This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies. |
Singapore | This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6878 8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report. |
Thailand | This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. For any query regarding the materials herein, please contact Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul at [email protected] |
United Kingdom | This report is produced by DBS Bank Ltd which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Bank Ltd, London Branch (“DBS UK”). DBS Bank Ltd is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS UK is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBS UK, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS UK. This communication is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment activity following from this communication will only be engaged in with such persons. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this communication. |
Dubai International Financial Centre | This communication is provided to you as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty as defined in the DFSA Rulebook Conduct of Business Module (the "COB Module"), and should not be relied upon or acted on by any person which does not meet the criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty under the DFSA rules. This communication is from the branch of DBS Bank Ltd operating in the Dubai International Financial Centre (the "DIFC") under the trading name "DBS Bank Ltd. (DIFC Branch)" ("DBS DIFC"), registered with the DIFC Registrar of Companies under number 156 and having its registered office at units 608 - 610, 6th Floor, Gate Precinct Building 5, PO Box 506538, DIFC, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (the "DFSA") with a DFSA reference number F000164. For more information on DBS DIFC and its affiliates, please see http://www.dbs.com/ae/our--network/default.page. Where this communication contains a research report, this research report is prepared by the entity referred to therein, which may be DBS Bank Ltd or a third party, and is provided to you by DBS DIFC. The research report has not been reviewed or authorised by the DFSA. Such research report is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information contained within is believed to be reliable, the information has not been independently verified by DBS DIFC. Unless otherwise indicated, this communication does not constitute an "Offer of Securities to the Public" as defined under Article 12 of the Markets Law (DIFC Law No.1 of 2012) or an "Offer of a Unit of a Fund" as defined under Article 19(2) of the Collective Investment Law (DIFC Law No.2 of 2010). The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying this communication or any associated documents in connection with this investment and it is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the DFSA. Accordingly, the DFSA has not approved this communication or any other associated documents in connection with this investment nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this communication or any associated documents, and has no responsibility for them. The DFSA has not assessed the suitability of any investments to which the communication relates and, in respect of any Islamic investments (or other investments identified to be Shari'a compliant), neither we nor the DFSA has determined whether they are Shari'a compliant in any way. Any investments which this communication relates to may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on any investments. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial adviser. |
United States | This report was prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. DBSVUSA did not participate in its preparation. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered as research analysts with FINRA and are not associated persons of DBSVUSA. The research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on analyst compensation, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst. This report is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. This report may only be distributed to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) and to such other institutional investors and qualified persons as DBSVUSA may authorize. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate. |
Other jurisdictions | In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions. |
HONG KONG | SINGAPORE |
INDONESIA PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia) Contact: William Simadiputra DBS Bank Tower Ciputra World 1, 32/F Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav. 3-5 Jakarta 12940, Indonesia Tel: 62 21 3003 4900 Fax: 6221 3003 4943 e-mail: [email protected] | THAILAND |
Related Stories
- Genting Singapore: Reset into a year of market share recovery25 Feb 2026
- Genting Singapore Ltd: Genting Malaysia to remain listed and on track to secure New York casino license29 Jan 2026
- Genting Singapore Ltd: Genting Malaysia to remain listed and on track to secure New York casino license02 Dec 2025
Related Stories
- Genting Singapore: Reset into a year of market share recovery25 Feb 2026
- Genting Singapore Ltd: Genting Malaysia to remain listed and on track to secure New York casino license29 Jan 2026
- Genting Singapore Ltd: Genting Malaysia to remain listed and on track to secure New York casino license02 Dec 2025