In-line 4Q25. PTTEP reported 4Q25 net profit of THB17.50bn (-4% y/y, +38% q/q), in line with our estimate but above Bloomberg consensus. Earnings were supported by: i) a one-off gain of USD92mn from the acquisition of the Touat project in Sep 2025 (recognised under equity income), and ii) total non-recurring gains of THB1.37bn.

Despite stronger production volumes, core performance was pressured by lower ASPs following the decline in Dubai crude reference prices. Total EBITDA came in at THB45.78bn (-12% y/y, -3% q/q). Normalised profit was THB16.11bn (-8% y/y, +33% q/q).

PTTEP also announced a 2H25 dividend of THB4.65/share, implying a dividend yield of 3.5%. Note that an interim dividend of THB4.10/share had already been paid for 1H25

4Q25 performance

1. Production volume: Production averaged 539kboed (+8% y/y, +6% q/q). The increase was driven by: a) higher gas nominations from PTT following the completion of GSP maintenance, b) higher crude lifting from the Middle East and Africa, and c) full-year contribution from the MTJDA Block A18 project.
2. Realised prices: With Dubai crude prices declining to USD63.8/bbl (-15% y/y, -9% q/q), average selling price (ASP) fell to USD42.55/boe (-7% y/y, -1% q/q). Gas selling prices averaged USD5.74/mmbtu (-2% y/y, -1% q/q), reflecting the contractual price lag of up to 12 months.
3. Unit cost: Unit cost was 4/boe (+7% y/y, flat q/q). The y/y increase was mainly due to seasonal SG&A expenses, higher depreciation from the G2/61 Bongkot project, and increased maintenance activities.
4. Extraordinary items: Extraordinary items in 4Q25 included a forex gain of THB477mn and a net hedging gain of THB908mn from financial instruments, following a downward-sloping Brent forward curve.

1Q26F to be lifted by oil price hike. We expect oil prices to remain elevated in Feb 2026 following the January spike, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Based on management guidance in the MD&A, we conservatively estimate 1Q26F net profit at THB14.43bn (-13% y/y, -10% q/q), assuming:

1. production volume of 545kboed (+13% y/y, +1% q/q), supported by higher output from Erawan, Block A18, and the SK408 project; ii) average Dubai crude price of USD65/bbl and average gas selling price of USD5.7/mmbtu; iii) ASP of USD42.84/boe (-6% y/y, +1% q/q); iv) unit cost of USD30/boe (-3% y/y, -5% q/q); and v) a corporate tax rate of 45%

Maintain BUY. We maintain a BUY rating with an FY26F TP of THB169, based on a DCF valuation using a WACC of 11.69% and a terminal growth rate of 1%. Despite softer oil prices, we continue to favour PTTEP due to its limited exposure to regulatory risks such as electricity tariff cuts or the adoption of a new pooled gas pricing mechanism. PTTEP’s medium-term outlook remains solid, underpinned by resilient production growth of c.3.5% CAGR over 2026–2030F, stable gas selling prices, and an attractive expected dividend yield of around 5%.

Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (THB, mn)

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