• Raise our FY26F net profit projection by 12% as we raised our Brent assumption from USD65/bbl to USD75/bbl

• Core 1Q26F estimated at THB17.63bn (+6% y/y, +9% q/q), lifted by higher oil prices and stronger sales volume

• PTTEP is our top pick in energy sector as it directly benefit from oil price spike with least operating risk

• Maintain BUY rating with FY26F TP of THB174 

1Q26F to be lifted by oil price spike. We expect oil prices to remain elevated in Mar 2026 as the ongoing US–Iran conflict has led to direct attacks on regional energy infrastructure and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Based on management guidance, we conservatively estimate 1Q26F net profit at THB17.63bn (+6% y/y, +9% q/q), assuming: i) production volume of c.545kboed (+13% y/y, +1% q/q), supported by higher output from Erawan, Block A18, and the SK408 project; ii) an average Dubai crude price of USD76/bbl and an average gas selling price of USD5.7/mmbtu; iii) ASP of USD46.44/boe (+2% y/y, +9% q/q); iv) unit cost of USD30/boe (-3% y/y, -5% q/q); and v) a corporate tax rate of 45%.

Our top pick. Maintain BUY. We maintain a BUY rating with an FY26F TP of THB174, based on a DCF valuation using a WACC of 11.69% and a terminal growth rate of 1%. We continue to favour PTTEP as our top pick in the energy sector, as it is a direct beneficiary of the oil price spike stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East, while having limited exposure to regulatory risks such as electricity tariff cuts or the potential adoption of a new pooled gas pricing mechanism. In addition, PTTEP’s medium-term outlook remains solid, underpinned by resilient production growth of c.3.5% CAGR over 2026–2030F, stable gas selling prices, and an attractive expected dividend yield of around 5%.

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