1Q25 result highlights
Trip.com’s 1Q25 revenue increased by 16% y/y to RMB13.9bn in 1Q25, in line with market consensus, driven by robust growth in accommodation reservations and steady performance across other segments.
By segment, accommodation reservation revenue rose 23% y/y to RMB5.5bn. Transportation ticketing revenue grew 8% y/y to RMB5.4bn. Packaged-tour revenue increased 7% y/y to RMB947mn, while corporate travel revenue grew 12% y/y to RMB573mn.
Sales and marketing expenses surged 30% y/y to RMB3.0bn but was below market expectations of RMB3.3bn. As a result, non-GAAP net profit grew 3% y/y to RMB4.2bn in 1Q25, 9% above market consensus of RMB3.8bn.
Outlook
Domestic travel. 1Q25 hotel bookings saw double-digit growth y/y, driven by strong consumer demand for local exploration. Senior travelers emerged as a key growth segment, with both user numbers and GMV in the Old Friend Club rising 100% y/y. The Labour Day holiday data was strong, with domestic hotel bookings increasing over 20% y/y and airfares & hotel prices nearing 2024 levels. We expect domestic travel to drive overall revenue growth of 15%/15% for 2Q25/FY25F.
Domestic Hotel ADRs. We expect increasing travel demand and normalising supplier growth to help stabilise hotel ADRs in 2H25.
Outbound travel. Industry cross-border flight capacity reached 83% of pre-pandemic levels in 1Q25, while the company’s outbound hotel and air bookings surpassed 120% of 2019 levels, outperforming the market by c.40%. Long-haul destinations (e.g., Europe) showed strong growth despite short-term disruptions in Thailand due to the earthquake.
International travel. Reservations on the company’s international OTA platform increased by over 60% y/y in 1Q25, with inbound travel bookings surging by 100% y/y, thanks to: 1) favourable policies including 10-day visa-free transit for 54 countries, VAT refund schemes, 2) company’s localized services (multilingual support, free city tours in Shanghai/Beijing) boosted accessibility. With inbound travel up 40% y/y and 75% of tourists from visa-free regions, we expect these tailwinds to continue providing robust growth for Trip.com’s inbound travel business, and expect Trip.com’s international business to achieve 50% revenue CAGR in the next two years.
AI initiatives. AI is central to Trip.com’s strategy, spanning trip planning to post-sales support. Tools like the AI agent "Trip Genie" increased user session duration by 50%, while AI chatbots handle 80%+ of inquiries, improving response times (vs FY24 of c.70%). We expect continuous investments into AI to lead to further operational leverage for Trip.com in the medium term.
Shareholder returns. The company had repurchased 1.6mn ADSs in aggregate with a total gross consideration of USD84mn as of 16th May 2025, equivalent to c.0.2% of total shares outstanding and 21% of its FY25 buyback plan of USD400mn (or 12% of total buyback plan if including the USD280mn carryover from FY24).
Valuation. We maintain BUY on Trip.com as we remain positive on its long-term growth prospects, supported by the recovery of flight capacity and robust growth of its overseas business. We keep our non-GAAP earnings estimates largely intact, as we believe the company’s 1Q25 earnings beat will likely be offset by potential step up in marketing expense for the international business. We are forecasting FY25/26/27F non-GAAP net profit growth of 5%/15%/17%. We maintain our TPs of HKD646/USD83 based on 21x FY25 non-GAAP PE (unchanged), largely in line with historical average.
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