Bangkok Dusit Medical Services: Healthy momentum in Phuket
- BDMS Phuket hospitals (BPK, BSI, DBK) visited on 13 June 2025; facilities and decent patient flow impressed
- Phuket hospitals contributed 6% of group revenue, grew 9% y/y in 1Q25, and held c.31% of Phuket’s hospital beds
- FY25-FY26F earnings outlook remains strong, supported by higher revenue intensity, occupancy, and cost saving
- Maintain BUY with a DCF-based TP of THB36.00
On 13 June 2025, we visited Bangkok Hospital Phuket (BPK), Bangkok Siriroj (BSI), and Dibuk (DBK). During our site visits to BKP, BSI and DBK, we were impressed by its well-equipped facilities and excellent organisation.
BDMS’s southern hospitals contributed 11% of the group’s total revenue and recorded 9% y/y growth in 1Q25. BDMS operates seven hospitals in Southern Thailand, including three in Phuket – Bangkok Hospital Phuket (BPK), Bangkok Hospital Siriroj (BSI), and Dibuk Hospital – and four others, namely Bangkok Hospital Hat Yai (BHH), Bangkok Hospital Samui (BSH), Phangan International Hospital, and Bangkok Hospital Surat (BSR). As of end-1Q25, BDMS had 12 Centers of Excellence (CoEs), with BPK and BSI recognised among them.
Phuket is a major tourist destination in Thailand, had a population of 424K in 2023, representing 0.6% of the country’s total population, and welcomed 9.88mn international tourists. The province is divided into three districts: Mueang Phuket, which accounts for 59.58% of the population; Thalang, with 26.80%; and Kathu, with 13.62%.
BDMS’s Phuket has a strong performance. BKP, BSI, and DBK generated a total THB5,988mn in revenue in FY24 (+13% y/y), making up 6% of BDMS's total revenue. Management aims to achieve THB6,700 FY25F (+12% y/y) with a current utilisation of 70%. BDMS Phuket’s performance was strong in 1Q25, with revenue of THB1,744mn (+8.7% y/y), and an EBITDA margin of 28.7% and NPAT of 19.4%, relatively stronger than the BDMS group average.
BDMS already has a strong presence in Phuket. Phuket currently has 1,181 hospital beds, with 37% in private hospitals and 63% in public hospitals. BDMS holds a strong position in the market, accounting for 31% of total beds.
Two new hospitals are set to open in Phuket. Wattanapat Hospital Trang (WPH), a 200-bed facility near Kamala Beach, is scheduled to launch in 4Q26 and will target both cash-paying and Social Security (SSO) patients. Bumrungrad Hospital (BH) plans to open a 212-bed boutique hospital near the airport in 1H27, focusing on preventive care and medical tourism.
Despite the upcoming competition, BDMS’s management remains confident due to:
- Its strong brand recognition from over 30 years of operations in city centre of Phuket
- A well-diversified portfolio of three hospitals, each catering to a different patient segment
- A solid team of experienced and readily available physicians.
Phuket tourism nears full recovery in 2024, momentum continues into 2025. According to MOTS, international tourism in Phuket has shown a strong rebound, rising from 3.34mn in 2022 to 9.88mn in 2024 – recovering to around 93% of pre-COVID levels. Domestic tourism has also improved, though it remains slightly below pre-pandemic levels. 4M25 data shows continued growth in both segments, with international tourist arrivals reaching 4.27mn (+1.9% y/y) and domestic tourists totalling 1.59mn (+6.7% y/y).
Top-notch facilities and team. During our site visit to BKP, BSI, and DBK, we were impressed by its well-equipped facilities and excellent organisation. Both IPD and OPD departments were busy, reflecting strong patient demand and trust. The three hospital ranks first in revenue market share and number of beds driven by its JCI Accreditation in BKP and BSI, comprehensive range of tertiary care services, and a highly respected medical team.
- Bangkok Hospital Phuket (BPK) established in 1995 and operated by Dr. Lalita Kongseeha, a medicine doctor and the hospital director. BPK is a tertiary-level private hospital and a Centre of Excellence (COE) within the BDMS network. The hospital offers comprehensive healthcare services for all patient groups, with six COES – including the Colorectal Cancer Center, Orthopedic Center, and Heart Center – bringing in c.51% of its revenue.
- Bangkok Hospital Siriroj (BSI), established in 1982, became part of the BDMS network in August 2014. The hospital primarily serves the domestic market and specialises in Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Women’s Health, Mother and Child Care, and Gender Reassignment Surgery.
- Dibuk Hospital (DBK) serves both cash-paying and Social Security patients, with 37,395 insured persons registered as of May 2025.
Market leader in Phuket. BKP, BSI, and DBK targets all patient segments, with an average OPD billing of THB6,000 per visit and IPD billing of THB50,000-60,000 per stay (compared to BDMS Group’s average of THB 4,044 for OPD and THB 93,766 for IPD in 1Q25).
Key factors to watch out for i) Intense competition in the healthcare business in Phuket, and ii) Shortage of medical professionals in 2026-2027.
Our view
2Q25F earnings to grow y/y but drop q/q. According to management, 2QTD revenue grew 5-6% y/y, in line with 1Q25. We expect BDMS’s 2Q25F earnings to rise y/y, supported by higher revenue intensity and strong international patient flow, especially from Europe and the Middle East. However, Thai revenue may decline q/q due to long holidays.
FY25F-FY29F earnings CAGR at 8%. We expect BDMS to deliver an earnings CAGR of 8% over FY25F-FY29F, driven by a revenue CAGR of 6% and an EBITDA margin of 24-26%, in line with management’s guidance. BDMS’s growth drivers are:
- Higher volume of international patients from existing markets such as China, Europe, and the ME, as well as new markets including Saudi Arabia
- Higher revenue intensity from 12 COEs in five key focus areas (heart, cancer, brain, bone, and trauma)
- Margin improvement from a ramp-up in existing hospitals’ operations as well as passing the peak capex cycle
- IPD beds being expected to increase by approximately 5%, reaching around 9,200 beds in FY25F, driven by expansion projects. Key contributors include the opening of Samitivej Children's International Hospital (103beds), Phyathai Bowin Hospital (220 beds), and Bangkok Chiangmai Hospital (90 beds)
BDMS is trading at an attractive, at 20.8x in FY25F, -2SD below its five-year historical average. We expect BDMS’s ROE to rise to 16.8% in FY25F (from 13% in 2019) due to a more efficient use of assets as patient numbers continue to grow. We see limited downside risk from tariff uncertainty, higher medicine price, and intense competition in the Bangkok area.
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