Grab Holdings Ltd: New affordable product launches to drive GMV in FY25F/26F
New product launches in the deliveries segment are expected to drive market share gains for GRAB. Grab Holdings (GRAB)’s deliveries GMV in FY25F and FY26F are expected to gain strong momentum, driven by recent offerings like GrabFood for One, Shared Saver, launched in April 2025. These innovations broaden Grab’s addressable market by catering to both cost-conscious and high-volume users. GrabFood for One taps into the growing solo-dining segment with low-cost, low-friction ordering, which used to be a strong niche for Foodpanda in the past. Shared Saver encourages price-sensitive users by offering group buying option among friends—boosting order volume without corresponding increase in delivery costs. Together, these features are expected to increase overall platform stickiness, order frequency, and monetisation per user, supporting double-digit GMV growth across key Southeast Asian markets in FY25F and sustaining that trajectory into FY26F. Successful execution of affordable products should expand Grab’s customer base, as its current 40mn on-demand MAUs imply only ~6% population penetration in Southeast Asia. However, food delivery penetration in the US in 2024 was ~20%. GRAB’s on-demand MAU base has increased by an average of 19% y/y from 1Q24 to 4Q24. We project Grab's on-demand MAUs to see a 16% CAGR over 2024-2027, rising from 40mn to 62mn, respectively. This would represent ~9% population penetration in Southeast Asia in 2027, assuming 1% annual population growth in the region during that period.
GRAB’s new delivery products launched since 2023 to drive GMV
Product / Feature | Launched | Description | Benefit |
GrabFood for One | April 2025 | Designed to make ordering food more convenient and affordable for solo diners | Affordable, convenient for individuals. Foodpanda serves solo-diners market mainly with lower delivery fee |
Shared Saver | April 2025 | Enables users to "group" their orders with nearby friend/user who are ordering from the same or nearby merchants | More the users, lower the delivery fee via crowdsourced routes |
Grab Saver | 2023 | Offers lower delivery fees in exchange for longer wait times - accounted for ~33% delivery transactions in 4Q24. | Lower delivery fees |
Source: Company, DBS
The lack of a combined ride-hailing and food delivery service could hurt Foodpanda in Southeast Asia. Firstly, competitors like Grab, operating as "super apps," offer user convenience. Consumers in Southeast Asia often prefer a single platform for multiple daily needs, including transport, food delivery, and even payments. This integrated experience fosters greater app stickiness and reduces the need for users to switch between different applications for various services, making Grab a more ingrained part of their daily routine. Secondly, a unified platform allows for cross-selling and enhanced customer loyalty. A user who primarily uses Grab for rides might be more easily converted into a food delivery customer within the same app, and vice versa. This creates a powerful ecosystem where marketing efforts for one service can benefit others, potentially leading to lower customer acquisition costs and higher lifetime value. Foodpanda, focusing solely on food and grocery delivery, misses out on these synergistic opportunities, potentially limiting its growth avenues and making it harder to compete for overall user engagement against more diversified platforms.
GRAB stands to benefit from the recent market exits of two key competitors in Southeast Asia. Delivery Hero’s Foodpanda ceased operations in Thailand on 23 May 2025 as part of a regional strategy shift, while Gojek (GoTo Group) exited Vietnam on 16 September 2024 to streamline focus on higher growth markets. Foodpanda held a 5% market share in Thailand’s food delivery market as of 2024, while Gojek held a 1% market share in Vietnam’s food delivery market at the end of 2024, according to Momentum Works. These developments materially reduce competitive intensity in two of Grab’s core geographies, potentially improving unit economics and strengthening its market share in both Thailand and Vietnam.
We expect 17% delivery GMV CAGR for GRAB’s over FY24-26F. GRAB is expected to grow its deliveries GMV at a CAGR of 17% over FY24-26F as its affordable delivery options gain popularity and it capitalises on the exit of key players from the market. We expect delivery GMV to grow by 20% y/y in FY25F, vs. 13% y/y growth in FY24, and a further 14% y/y in FY26F.
We expect adj. EBITDA at USD499mn (+59% y/y), with a stronger lift from deliveries. We expect to expand to 2.2% in 2025 (from 1.7% in 2024), with more rational competition expected due to the exit of key players in different markets, scale expansion, and ramp-up of new margin-accretive initiatives. We assume the mobility margin would remain largely stable at 8.7% (+13bps), given the impact of a shift in mix and reinvestments in select markets with higher competition. For financial services, we expect adj. EBITDA losses to improve as Grab scales its loan books in its Digital Banks in Singapore and Malaysia. As such, we expect losses to narrow to USD100mn in FY25F from USD105mn in 2024.
Excluding fintech, we project Grab’s adj. EBITDA as % of GMV at 4.5%/4.9% in FY25F/26F
GRAB in USD mn |
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F |
Mobility | GMV | 5,420 | 6,640 | 7,835 | 8,932 | 10,004 |
| Adj. EBITDA | 466 | 569 | 682 | 786 | 900 |
| Adj. EBITDA as % of GMV | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% |
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Delivery | GMV | 10,365 | 11,723 | 14,068 | 16,037 | 17,641 |
| Adj. EBITDA | 81 | 196 | 309 | 449 | 600 |
| Adj. EBITDA as % of GMV | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% |
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Fintech | Adj. EBITDA | (170) | (105) | (100) | 1 | 58 |
Others | Adj. EBITDA | (1) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
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Total GMV (On-demand) | 15,785 | 18,363 | 21,903 | 24,969 | 27,645 | |
Total Segment adj.EBITDA | 376 | 663 | 894 | 1,240 | 1,562 | |
Corporate Cost | (398) | (350) | (396) | (419) | (440) | |
Group adj. EBITDA | (22) | 313 | 499 | 821 | 1,122 | |
Excluding fintech, Group adj. EBITDA as % of GMV | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | |
Group adj. EBITDA as a % of GMV | (0.1%) | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | |
Corporate cost as a % of GMV | (2.5%) | (1.9%) | (1.8%) | (1.7%) | (1.6%) | |
Source: DBS
Our FY25F/26F group adj. EBITDA is 4%/10% above consensus
REVISED | CONSENSUS 23.07.2025 | DBS vs CONSENSUS | ||||||||
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
Deliveries GMV | 11,723 | 14,068 | 16,037 | 17,641 | 13,636 | 15,361 | 17,226 | 3% | 4% | 2% |
Mobility GMV | 6,640 | 7,835 | 8,932 | 10,004 | 7,795 | 8,895 | 10,074 | 1% | 0% | -1% |
On-demand GMV | 18,363 | 21,903 | 24,969 | 27,645 | 21,432 | 24,256 | 27,301 | 2% | 3% | 1% |
Deliveries | 196 | 309 | 449 | 600 | 295 | 408 | 549 | 5% | 10% | 9% |
Mobility | 569 | 682 | 786 | 900 | 677 | 787 | 900 | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Financial Services | (105) | (100) | 1 | 58 | (105) | (33) | 43 | -4% | -103% | 34% |
Others | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13% | 0% | -5% |
Regional Corporate Cost | (350) | (396) | (419) | (440) | (387) | (412) | (428) | 2% | 2% | 3% |
Adjusted EBITDA | 313 | 499 | 821 | 1,122 | 481 | 745 | 1,044 | 4% | 10% | 7% |
Adjusted EBITDA ex Fintech and Others | 418 | 599 | 819 | 1,064 | 585 | 778 | 1,001 | 2% | 5% | 6% |
Source: Visible Alpha, DBS
Maintain BUY with a revised TP of USD6.35. Our revised TP is derived from rolling forward our valuation by three months. We peg the on-demand business at 22x 12-month forward EV/adj EBITDA (prev. 21x) at a 10% premium to Uber’s multiple, as Grab offers a 40% adj. EBITDA CAGR vs. Uber’s 29% over FY24-26F. We value fintech at 4.8x 12-month forward revenue (prev. 4.6x) vs. peer average of 4.4x, as GRAB’s fintech segment offers a revenue CAGR of 51% over FY24-26F vs. the peer average CAGR of 8%. Overall, including fintech, Grab exhibits a 62% adj. EBITDA CAGR over FY24-26F compared to Uber’s 29%. We also add synergies of USD1.05bn (0.26 Scts per share), assuming a 50% probability of merger with GoTo.
Our bull-case TP of USD7.30 assumes higher on-demand margins. We use an on-demand EV/EBITDA of 23x (vs. 22x under the base case) on an adj. EBITDA of USD800mn, 10% higher than our base case due to a sharper rise in delivery margins and a 6.0x 12-month forward EV/revenue for fintech (vs. 4.8x under the base case).
Our bear-case TP of USD5.10 suggests limited downside risk. This assumes an on-demand 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 21x on an adj. EBITDA of USD582mn, 20% lower than our base case adj. EBITDA based on irrational competition.
SOTP valuation for Grab
SOTP Valuation (USDmn) | 12m forward adj EBITDA | EV/EBITDA | 12m forward Revenue | EV/Revenue | Enterprise Value |
Adjusted EBITDA ex Financial Services and Others | 728 | 22.3 | - | - | 17,278 |
Financial Services | - | 538 | 4.8 | 2,580 | |
Total Enterprise Value | 19,858 | ||||
Net Cash/(Debt) | 5,506 | ||||
Total Equity Value | 25,364 | ||||
Outstanding Number of Shares (mn) | 3,995 | ||||
Target Price | 6.35 |
Source: Refinitiv, Companies, DBS
Peer multiples
Peers | EV/EBITDA | EV/Revenue |
UBER | 20 | |
SOFI | 6.3 | |
Amex | 2.8 | |
Upstart | 6.3 | |
PayPal | 2.2 | |
Average | 4.4 |
Source: Visible Alpha, DBS
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