2Q25 results highlights
Baidu reported its 2Q25 results on 20 Aug 2025 after HK market closed. Revenue rose 3% y/y to RMB32.5bn, in-line with market consensus. Baidu’s core revenue fell 2% y/y to RMB26.3bn, of which online marketing revenue dropped 15% y/y to RMB16.2bn, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, AI cloud revenue grew 27% y/y to RMB6.5bn, largely in-line with consensus estimates’ 25% growth, thanks to a wider adoption of its Ernie model leading to higher cloud usage. iQiyi revenue fell 11% y/y to RMB6.6bn due to a decline in subscriptions. Gross profit fell 18% y/y to RMB14.4bn, with margin narrowing by 7.8ppt to 43.9% due to a higher revenue contribution from the lower margin cloud business. On OPEX, selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased by 5% to RMB6.0bn, 3% lower than market expectations, while research and development (R&D) expenses decreased by 13% to RMB5.1bn, 6% lower than market expectations. As a result, non-GAAP net profit fell 35% y/y to RMB4.8bn, 7% ahead of market expectations.
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Our view
The lower earnings reported by Baidu in 2Q25 is largely attributable to a shift in focusing more on AI-search, in which c.50% of total searches are unmonetized Gen-AI search. With an even higher proportion of Gen-AI search of c.75% expected in 3Q25, we estimate the accelerated AI search upgrade to drag Baidu core’s revenue with a 22% y/y decline in the upcoming quarter, slightly below consensus’ 18% decline, resulting in overall adj. operating profit of c.RMB20bn in 3Q25 (-70% y/y). However, we expect the decline to start narrowing in 4Q25 with Baidu starting its AI monetization, by means of intelligent agents and digital human. We thus project Baidu core’s advertising revenue to fall 14% y/y in FY25F to RMB62.7bn. Meanwhile, the company's non-advertising revenue exceeded RMB10bn for the first time in 2Q25, largely attributable to strong cloud revenue growth (+27% y/y to RMB6.5bn). We expect Baidu to continue to record robust growth in its cloud business supported by strong AI demand. For its robotaxi business, Baidu’s has provided over 2.2mn driverless rides in 2Q25 (+148% y/y), and has announced collaboration with Uber in July. We expect the partnership to accelerate its plan to expand its robotaxi business in Asia and Middle East, and we expect Baidu to enter a fast-paced growth phase with plans to begin commercial operations in more cities including Dubai and Abu Dhabi in 2H25. Maintain HOLD with TP HKD84/USD85, benchmarked to 10x rolling adj. PE.
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