Earnings review
No surprise in 2Q25 earnings. MINT reported a 2Q25 core profit of THB3.4bn, up 6% y/y and 6,737% q/q, in line with both our estimate and the consensus. The strong profit improvement q/q was supported by high hotel season in Europe. Meanwhile, y/y growth was supported by (i) lower finance costs due to lower outstanding debts and more favourable finance costs given the downtrend in interest rates globally, (ii) a hike in associate income and (iii) a lower effective tax rate.

In this quarter, the company recorded a net extra loss, mainly from forex and derivative contracts. Net-net, 2Q25 net profit came in at THB3.1bn (+9% y/y, +640% q/q). Nonetheless, we note that on core operations, the company faced challenges from the currency impact after the THB appreciated against the EUR, and major hotel asset renovations in Thailand. Also, with the weak economic situation, we see EBIT declining 9% y/y.

Robust hotel performance uncertain. In 2Q25, overall RevPar for owned and leased hotels contracted 2% y/y, weighed down by a 3% decline in average daily room rate (ADR) while occupancy rate (OR) inched up 1ppt y/y. We note that the negative RevPar growth was also impacted by the THB appreciation against the EUR and other currencies in 2Q25.

In local currency terms, the EU, the Americas, and the Maldives continued to show positive RevPar growth at 4% and 37%, respectively. For the EU & the Americas, RevPar growth was driven by both OR (1ppt y/y) and ADR (+2% y/y) despite the high base last year from key events including Euro Cups, big concerts, etc. The Maldives’ performance was boosted mostly by OR.

For the Thailand hub, on top of a slowdown in inbound tourism during the quarter, RevPar growth was -5% y/y (mostly dragged by OR while ADR growth remained healthy at 11% y/y). The drop in OR was impacted by the ongoing renovations of key assets in Thailand (these contributed c.40% of Thailand hotel revenue in 2024).

Under the Management Letting Rights model for Australia and New Zealand, RevPar inched up 1% y/y in 2Q25 (mostly due to small ADR improvement with stable OR at 74%). Net-net, overall hotel revenue dropped 4% y/y in 2Q25.

Food SSSG was negative on cautious spending. In 2Q25, overall food SSSG contracted 1.7% y/y with flattish food revenue growth on the back of store expansion in Thailand and Singapore. For the domestic hub, SSSG was negative at 2.9% y/y due to the soft economic environment. Nonetheless, efforts to launch new product innovations have helped certain brands show a solid performance – i.e. Daily Queen, Bon Chon GaGa, etc.

SSSG contraction of China hubs continued with negative 7.2% in 2Q25. It was still weighed down by cautious consumer sentiment amidst economic uncertainty in China.

The Singapore hub’s SSSG fell 3.7%. However, MINT launched several new restaurants and brands in Singapore, pushing the TSSSG to show decent growth of 11% y/y. Australian food SSSG was positive at 3.2% but still declined 2.7% y/y after ongoing asset rationalisation.

EBITDA margin was under pressure. MINT registered an EBITDA margin of 29.7% (-60bps y/y, +520bps q/q). The softer EBITDA margin y/y was due to less contribution from the hotel business as well as the lower hotel EBITDA margin given the weaker RevPar of the Thailand business and the impact of the EUR depreciation against the THB. The food EBITDA margin was also affected by higher raw material and labour costs in China along with higher coffee bean prices in Australia.

Positive factors lie on associate income and finance costs. We spot another strong growth of 124% y/y to THB267mn in 2Q25 after firm performance from its associates. Meanwhile, MINT’s finance costs dropped by a sharp 19% y/y following the lower debt outstanding y/y and more favourable rate. Nonetheless, compared to end-2024, MINT’s net IBD ratio inched up to c. 0.82 at end 2Q25 vs. 0.80 – no thanks to unrealised loss on the exchange rate recorded on long-term borrowings and translation adjustments following a THB depreciation. Net-net, 2Q25 core profit margin was 8.1% (+70bps y/y, +800bps q/q).

Outlook
Monitoring hotel forward booking, seeing more positive momentum on food SSSG in Thailand. We believe MINT’s quarterly profit should drop on a q/q basis in 3Q25 before improving q//q in 4Q25 on seasonality. Nevertheless, we expect y/y performance to improve in 3Q25, mostly supported by lower finance costs. We note that MINT successfully refinanced its EUR debentures of EUR200mn in July at a lower interest rate, while paying another EUR200mn of its EUR debentures in the same month.

On forward booking, MINT revealed that that the company recorded negative RevPar for both Europe and Thailand in July 2025. Nonetheless, in August, Europe RevPar is growing while Thailand RevPar growth is still negative. Thailand hotels should be negatively impacted by weak inbound tourism and ongoing renovation.

Blended food SSSG QTD showed positive mid-single-digit growth with a firm performance across key brands. Yet, management highlighted that it is closely monitoring food performance throughout the quarter.

Recommendation
Reiterate BUY with unchanged DCF-based TP of THB36.50. We maintain our FY25F earnings for now as 1H25 results would likely be on track to meet our full-year forecast. We expect overall RevPar growth to be 3% for owned and leased hotels and total revenue to rise by 3%, which is more conservative compared to management’s high-single-digit guidance. Nonetheless, we estimate core profit growth to be 9%, supported by better operating efficiency and lower interest expenses.

Our DCF-based TP of THB36.50 is unchanged. The stock is trading at an attractive EV/EBITDA of 5.0x and P/BV of 1.5x (implying -2.2SD of its five-year historical average). With a steady core earnings growth and a 51% upside to our TP, we maintain our BUY call.

Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (THBmn)

Source: Company, DBSVTH