Central Plaza Hotel: Stronger momentum on the way
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- 3Q25 core profit rose to THB192mn (+9% y/y), ahead of our estimate and consensus
- Results were led by solid food business, while hotel segment was more resilient than peers
- Spot RevPAR growth turned positive across all locations in October, while food SSSG stayed negative from Co-payment Plus scheme and mourning period effect
- Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of THB37.00
3Q25 results ahead of consensus
Earnings review
Positive surprise in 3Q25 core profit growth. CENTEL reported 3Q25 core profit of THB191mn (+9% y/y and +84% q/q). The results were significantly ahead of consensus estimate of THB124mn and our estimate of THB148mn. The key deviation to our earnings forecast was mostly due to lower-than-expected D&A expenses during the period. A strong recovery in q/q performance was mainly supported by narrower losses of new Maldives hotels from 2Q25 as well as well-controlled costs and expenses.
On y/y basis, 3Q25 earnings growth was mainly boosted by strong Thailand and Japan operations, new hotel contribution, well-controlled costs and expenses, along with higher associate income, slightly offset by higher D&A and interest expenses due to operation of new two Maldives hotels from November 2024 and April 2025.
In this quarter, CENTEL recorded a few extra items consisting of THB49mn impairment loss from ceased operation of Amazon Café in Vietnam (40%-owned JV), THB23 withholding tax write-off and THB40mn gain from forex. Net-net, 3Q25 profit came at THB160mn (-2% y/y and +46% q/q).
Firm group RevPAR growth. Overall RevPAR growth (excluding Dubai) was 5% – improved vs. 2% in 2Q25. The stronger RevPAR growth compared to 2Q25 growth was supported by stronger performances in Thailand and the Maldives, despite softer Japan RevPAR growth.
Bangkok properties facing pressure, with AOR declining 3ppts y/y due to soft inbound tourism. In contrast, upcountry hotels delivered solid performance, posting 12% RevPAR growth driven mainly by a sharp rebound in AOR and further supported by the completion of key renovations at Centara Grand Mirage (Pattaya) and Centara Karon. This was despite ongoing refurbishments at Centara Grand Hua Hin (since April 2025) and Centara Grand Krabi (since May 2025). Overall, Thailand RevPAR remained in positive territory at 5%.
Hotels in Japan delivered a moderate 8% RevPAR increase in 3Q25, following stronger momentum in August and September. July’s performance was weighed down by traveller concerns over earthquakes and volcanic activity. On a JPY basis, however, RevPAR growth from the Japan portfolio was 15%.
Maldives hotels continued to post RevPAR contraction in 3Q25, down in the low-27% range y/y (-21% y/y in USD), though this marks an improvement from the 46% decline in 2Q25. The softer performance was further pressured by the opening of Centara Mirage Lagoon Maldives in November 2024 and Centara Grand Lagoon Maldives in April 2025, which increased the room inventory during a period of soft demand.
Additionally, CENTEL’s Dubai assets—recognized as associate income—recorded broadly flat RevPAR growth, as lower AOR was offset by higher ARR. Performance was also dampened by the strength of the Thai baht. Excluding currency effects, RevPAR growth was steady at 8% y/y.
Overall, the hotel revenue grew 8% y/y – slightly ahead of the group RevPAR growth at 5% in 3Q25 after new hotel contribution.
Food revenue trends have improved, with total food sales growing 1% in 3Q25, consistent with a 1% SSSG (vs. -3% in 2Q25). The resilient same-store growth was underpinned by solid performances from Japanese restaurant brands such as Ootoya and Katsuya.
Including JV brands, food revenue rose 9% y/y with SSSG of 2%, driven primarily by the strong momentum of the Shinkansen brand under the JV portfolio. The robust showing from food JVs also supported growth in associate income to THB72mn in 3Q25 (vs loss of THB7mn in 3Q24).
EBITDA margin improving from a spike in associate income. In 3Q25, overall EBITDA margin widened by 80bps y/y and 120bps q/q. This was primarily driven by improving EBITDA margin of food business following attempts to shutdown non-performing outlets and a profit contribution spike in associate income from food JVs. Nonetheless, the increase in D&A (+3% y/y) from new Maldives hotels had weighed on EBIT growth in the quarter.
Core net margin inched up y/y. CENTEL’s finance costs increased 13% y/y in 3Q25 – mostly on the full recognition of additional interest expenses of new Maldives hotels – despite the declining interest rate environment. Still, overall 3Q25 core margin came in at 3.4% (+10bps y/y).
Outlook
RevPAR across all locations turned positive. The management disclosed that RevPAR rebounded across all locations, with overall RevPAR growth at 24% y/y. For Thailand, the RevPAR was driven by occupancy rate while Bangkok RevPAR was back to positive territory (Upcountry showed stronger growth – driven by Centara Grand Mirage which was still being renovated in October 2024).
Maldives showed a firm turnaround driven by higher occupancy rate, benefitting from the company’s strategy to drive occupancy of existing Maldives assets by offering lower room rates. Japan, on the other hand, was still mostly driven by increasing ADR.
For 4Q25, for Bangkok, RevPAR is expected to grow 6% y/y while for Upcountry, RevPAR is expected to grow 12% y/y. The softer rate is due to a more normalised base and impact of mourning period.
Maldives’s RevPAR (exiting hotels) should grow by 40%-50%, similar to new Maldives hotels for 4Q25. For Japan, November growth had normailised after the expo finished in October 2025. Overall, Japan RevPAR is estimated to be 19% y/y.
On the other hand, Food SSSG remained negative in October. Management highlighted that QSR SSSG was negatively impacted by Co-Payment Plus scheme while in late October SSSG had slowed down mostly from the mourning period.
Nonetheless, management notes that Japanese brands continued perform well. In November 2025, management expects SSSG should recover given higher numbers of holidays. Including food JV, the SSSG was also negative 1%, yet TSSG has grown 5% y/y from outlet expansion.
Trim guidance from 2025. Management has shared more conservative guidance for hotel RevPAR and food SSSG to reflect the latest results and view.
Acquiring a 40% stake in Miracle Planet. CENTEL has made another strategic move and is acquiring a 40% stake in Miracle Planet Co., Ltd. Miracle Planet, established in 2021, operating Lucky Suki and Lucky BBQ buffet restaurants with 38 outlets at end Oct 2025. The total investment will be c. THB940mn, funded by CENTEL’s operational cash flows. We note that the company’s net gearing at end 3Q25 stood at 0.8x (vs debt covenant of 2.0x).
Management shares that Miracle Planet would help strengthen company’s food portfolio with more variety and capturing the new late-night consumption trend. With CENTEL partnership, Miracle Plant should be able to expand and improve margins.
According to Department of Business Development, Miracle Planet reported 2024 revenue of THB1bn with net profit of THB108mn which rose 148% and 134% y/y, respectively. Thus, CENTEL’s deal implies a valuation of 21.8x trailing P/E.
Based on company’s guidance, revenue for 2025 is expected to be THB2bn and THB3bn in 2026. So far, 9M25 revenue is still on track with the target, mostly driven by outlet expansion. At end 2024, Miracle Planet operated 20 branches and will operate 40 branches at end 2025.
We are positive on the deal as Lucky Suki and Lucky BBQ brands are well recognised by consumers and have very strong growth potential. This deal also diversifies CENTEL’s food portfolio in terms of restaurant style and customer base with potential synergies. Furthermore, it should improve overall food margin.
Recommendation
Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of THB37.00. We maintain our earnings forecast and DCF-based TP of THB37.00 (WACC of 8.9%, terminal growth of 1%). Given upside potential and expectations that the Maldives’ performance bottomed in 2Q25, we maintain BUY.
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