PTT Oil & Retail Business PCL: Expect recovery in 4Q25F
- 3Q25 net profit came in at THB2.61bn (+263% y/y, +17% q/q), lifted by mobility business
- Marketing margin came in at THB1.02/litre (+100% y/y, +20% q/q) with 109mn cups sold (+11% y/y, +2% q/q)
- Festive season to support both mobility and lifestyle businesses in 4Q25F
- Maintain HOLD with an FY26F TP of THB14
3Q25 lifted by mobility business. OR reported a 3Q25 net profit of THB2.61bn (+263% y/y, +17% q/q), better than the Bloomberg consensus. Business performance improvement was supported by ii) widening marketing margins, ii) an inventory gain of THB630mn, and iii) total non-recurring gains of THB244mn. However, international business deteriorated both y/y and q/q, mainly from Cambodia as the border conflict escalated.
Net marketing margin came in at THB1.02/litre (+100% y/y, +20% q/q) while total coffee cups sold stood at 109mn (+11% y/y, +2% q/q). Normal profit, excluding inventory impact, came in at THB1.74bn (-44% y/y, +11% q/q).
3Q25 key operating matrix
- Mobility business: Total retail oil sales volumes came in at 2,527mn litres (+2% y/y, -4% q/q) whereas wholesale fuel volumes registered 3,406mn litres (-15% y/y, -9% q/q). The q/q decline was no thanks to the off-peak season as travel activities dropped. Note that service stations increased by 86 stations y/y and 17 stations q/q. OR boasted a market share of 39.7% this quarter.
Market margin (MKM) was THB1.02/litre (+100% y/y, +20% q/q). The increase was thanks to a) lesser margin squeeze from the reduction of oil fund contribution, and b) stronger gasolene, diesel, and jet spreads. Moreover, this was also supported by an inventory gain of c.THB630mn (vs. 3Q24’s loss of c.THB2.9bn and 2Q25’s gain of c.THB360mn). - Lifestyle business: Revenue came in at THB6.30bn (+7% y/y, flat q/q). The stronger revenue y/y was thanks to store network expansion. The number of Café Amazon outlets increased by 274 y/y and 66 q/q. Total cups of coffee sold stood at 109mn (+11% y/y, +2% q/q).
EBITDA came in at THB1.77bn (+50% y/y, -3% q/q) with an EBITDA margin of 28.2% (vs. 20.2% in 3Q24 and 28.7% in 2Q25). The y/y improvement was thanks to margin improvement and the closure of unprofitable business unit while the softer profitability q/q was due to higher operating expenses in convenience stores. - Global business: Business performance deteriorated both y/y and q/q as EBITDA came in at THB263mn (-33% y/y, -40% q/q). Petroleum sales volume came in at 497mn litres (-7% y/y, -16% q/q), while total cups of coffee sold averaged 5mn (-32% y/y, -41 q/q). The drop in petroleum and coffee cup sales volume was mainly from Cambodia as conflict between Thailand and Cambodia escalated. The number of Café Amazon outlets reduced by 28 outlets y/y and 43 outlets q/q to 354.
- Extra items in 3Q25 included a) an oil hedging gain of THB138mn, b) a forex gain of THB1mn, and c) a reversal of credit loss from receivables of THB102mn.
Looking ahead
(+) High season to support 4Q25F. We expect business performance recovery in 4Q25F across all business units. This will be supported by:
- Mobility business: Seasonal demand (both retail and wholesale markets) during the new year where we expect q/q marketing margin recovery, lifted by softer oil prices. Moreover, we expect q/q less inventory impact as crude oil price moves in a narrow range.
- Lifestyle business: We expect stronger revenue and EBITDA margin due to the travel season and normalised SG&A expenses q/q.
(+/-) Less pressure on marketing margins as oil fund status continues to improve. As of 2 Nov 2025, the ending balance of the total oil fund (including LPG) remains in a deficit of THB13.27bn, based on data compiled by the Oil Fuel Fund Office (OFFO). This balance was the highest level since March 2022. Should we exclude the LPG balance, we see a net surplus of THB27.96bn.
Despite a higher contribution for diesel/gasoline users to oil fund being less likely, we deem flattish marketing margin ahead. This would be pressured by higher refining crack spreads to a 24-month high, supported by supply outage and seasonal demand.
On a 4Q25TD basis, marketing margins of gasohol91 and diesel stood at THB3.06/litre (-13% y/y, -11% q/q) and THB1.93/litre (flat y/y, -2% q/q) respectively.
Maintain HOLD with an FY26F TP of THB14, based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 10.33% and terminal growth rate of 1%. Our rating is on the back of i) country risk on international business with Cambodia remaining due to tension at borders, ii) a potential margin squeeze from the lifestyle business due to aggressive marketing campaigns, and iii) a lack of key catalysts in the short term, with no clear synergy benefits for the company’s recent acquisitions and new businesses.
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (THBmn)
FY Dec | 3Q2024 | 2Q2025 | 3Q2025 | % chg y/y | % chg q/q |
Revenue | 176,131 | 167,166 | 153,600 | (12.8) | (8.1) |
Cost of Goods Sold | (170,457) | (158,944) | (144,964) | (15.0) | (8.8) |
Gross Profit | 5,674 | 8,222 | 8,636 | 52.2 | 5.0 |
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc | (6,271) | (6,117) | (6,043) | (3.6) | (1.2) |
Operating Profit | (597) | 2,105 | 2,593 | nm | 23.2 |
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc | 750 | 463 | 528 | (29.6) | 14.0 |
Associates & JV Inc | 17.8 | 152 | 173 | 875.3 | 13.8 |
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc | (310) | (233) | (228) | 26.5 | 1.9 |
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) | (1,808) | 304 | 243 | nm | (19.9) |
Pre-tax Profit | (1,947) | 2,791 | 3,310 | nm | 18.6 |
Tax | 337 | (560) | (695) | nm | 24.1 |
Minority Interest | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.0 | nm | nm |
Net Profit | (1,609) | 2,232 | 2,615 | nm | 17.2 |
Net profit bef Except. | 199 | 1,928 | 2,371 | 1,092.4 | 23.0 |
EBITDA | 2,132 | 4,661 | 5,223 | 145.0 | 12.1 |
Margins (%) |
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Gross Margins | 3.2 | 4.9 | 5.6 |
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Opg Profit Margins | (0.3) | 1.3 | 1.7 |
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Net Profit Margins | (0.9) | 1.3 | 1.7 |
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Source: DBSVTH, Company
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